FANDOM


Foreword

This post is used for saving experiment data from other Kancolle testers, on the trigger rates night battle Cut-ins. For a higher level of objectivity, I will refrain from concluding or formulating from anything below. In order to help readers understand the exp't, I attached some information beside the original data according to my understanding of the experiments. Therefore you're always welcome to evaluate my work & translation.

Since the following tests are all about probability, data from smaller sample sizes would be surrounded by parenthesis, indicating less reliability. For more information on the significance of larger sample sizes, you may visit Calculating Confidence Intervals for Underlying Probabilities by Winzongod.

Since some info below were pasted from websites with no explicit citation, please contact me if you know any of the sources. Also, if you consider any unauthorized using of exp't data, you'll have my apology and associated content shall be deleted immediately.

If you noticed an error on my translation, ambiguity in the language, any important info were missing, or just need help with anything, please leave me a comment. I hope the following will be helpful.


Tentative formula for night battle cut-in chance (up to March, 2015)



$ (\text{Luck} + \text{Placement Modifier} + \text{Health Modifier} + \text{Searchlight Modifier} ) \% $

In the old formula, it was Luck *0.85.


  • Hard cap (or diminishing return) on luck over 40 for Main gun cut-ins
  • Hard cap (or diminishing return) on luck over 50 for Torpedo cut-ins.
  • Hard cap (or diminishing return) on luck over 60 for Mixed cut-ins

Modifier

Value

Placement Flagship +25~30
Other +15
Health Little or no damage 0
Minor damage (小破 Shouha) +0~5
Moderate damage (中破 Chuuha) +20
Searchlight Allied +5
Enemy -10
Star Shell Allied +5
Enemy -10





I - Luck, Placement & Cut-In Chances (2013 ~ 2014)

Exp't name: 夜戦カットイン検証

Blog / Author: 艦これ-チラ裏検証- / by くうぼをきゅう

Exp't Date: Dec 12, 2013  ~  Apr 11, 2014

Explanation:

A summary of all previous CI experiments done by Kuubowokyuu. Test ships had various luck stats, while carrying no night battle equipment.
In addition, searchlight was introduced to Kancolle by the end of February, 2014. Starshell was known by the end of June

Test Condition:

- Unless otherwise mentioned, all friendly ships were using Torpedo x 2 + Enhanced Boiler. All ship are around lv 90+, placed in non-flagship position.

- Always beyond minor damage(小破未满).

- Only data from the 1st battle (node C) is recorded for friendly ships.

- Morale 49 (node C)

- Line Ahead vs Line Ahead (node C)

- Data from the 2nd battle (node D) is recorded for the abyssal ships.


Original Data:

- 1st Row: Luck stat of the ship

- 3rd Row: Notes on the condition (morale), placement (flagship), level, or equipment

- 6th Row: Cut-in chance

- 7th Row: Cut-in chance minus luck stat

- The rows in blue represent the total / average of that data section. 

NBCI
















The table below is for the abyssal ships.

NBCI2






















II - Searchlight & Cut-In Chances

Exp't name: 探照灯検証

Blog / Author: 艦これ-チラ裏検証- / by くうぼをきゅう

Exp't Date: March 1 ~ 22, 2014

Explanation:

「艦これ」開発/運営 @KanColle_STAFF

【新装備アイテム「探照灯」について 1/2】 新装備【探照灯】を装備した艦娘は、夜戦突入時に耐久力が2以上残っている場合、特殊スキル【探照灯照射】を実施します。これにより、 ・味方艦隊の全艦艇の夜戦命中率up ・味方艦隊の全艦艇の夜戦カットイン攻撃率up… (続きます)。10:29 PM - 25 Feb 2014


「艦これ」開発/運営 @KanColle_STAFF

【「探照灯」について 2/2】 探照灯照射によって… ・味方艦隊の全艦艇の夜戦命中率up ・味方艦隊の全艦艇の夜戦カットイン攻撃率up ・敵艦隊の夜戦カットイン攻撃の抑制 そして、史実ほどではありませんが… ・探照灯照射艦への敵攻撃指向率up ・探照灯照射艦の被弾率up。10:35 PM - 25 Feb 2014


Test Conditions:

- Non-flagships were using torpedo x 2 + Boiler, Lv 90+. Searchlight equipped on flagship Jintsu.

- Always beyond minor damage(小破未满).

- Morale 49. (node C)

- Line Ahead vs Line Ahead (node C)

- Only data from the 1st battle (node C) is recorded for friendly ships.

- Data from the 2nd battle (node D) is recorded for the abyssal ships.


Original Data

- The red part represents when searchlight is equipped on Jintsu, where the blue one represents no searchlight is equipped.

- 1st Column Section: Ship name(Luck)

- 2nd Column Section: % being targeted by the abyssal ships. (Miss is also counted; Consecutive DA or cut-in are only counted once)

- 3rd Column Section: Cut-in rate when ship's beyond minor damage

- The 2 tables on the right represents cut-in chances of the abyssal ships.

NBCI SL
















Here's another graphical illustration on the test results:

- Top Left: Pie chart illustrating the % being targeted by the abyssal for each friendly ship (Inner circle = no searchlight; Outer circle = searchlight equipped on Jintsu (DARK BLUE))

- Top Right:  Cut-in chance of friendly ships (RED = searchlight, BLUE = no searchlight)

- Bottom Left:  Cut-in chance of abyssal ships (node C)

- Bottom Mid:  Cut-in chance of abyssal ships (node D)

- Bottom Right:  Differences in the cut-in chances (both friendly & abyssal) when searchlight is equipped.

20140307233013f98



















III - Starshell & Cut-In Chances

Exp't name: 照明弾検証

Blog / Author: 艦これ-チラ裏検証- / by くうぼをきゅう

Exp't Date: June 28, 2014

Explanation:

「艦これ」開発/運営 @KanColle_STAFF 

05▼【新装備】の実装 1/2 本日のアップデートで新装備の【照明弾】が実装されます。これを装備した艦娘は「夜戦」の開幕時において、照明弾射撃を実施する場合があります。照明弾で支援された艦隊は射撃命中率・特殊攻撃発生率が若干向上し、また敵艦隊の特殊攻撃発生を抑制します。10:46 PM - 19 Jun 2014  


「艦これ」開発/運営 @KanColle_STAFF  

06▼【照明弾】の補足 ・夜戦支援効果は艦隊全体に及びます。 ・敵艦隊の夜間特殊攻撃を抑制しますが決定的ではありません。 ・照明弾射撃は装備艦が多いほど成功確率は高まります。 ・【探照灯】のように使用艦が狙われるデメリットはありません。 ・【探照灯】との併用も有効です。11:01 PM - 19 Jun 2014


Test Conditions:

- Map 5-3-C (1st node)

- Morale 49.

- Line Ahead vs Line Ahead.

- Always beyond minor damage(小破未满).

- All test ships were using the 2 x torpedo CI setup (except Yukikaze). Yukikaze used the 3 gun CI setup. (10cmHA).

- Starshell equipped on the flagship Jintsu.

Data recorded only if starshell was activated.


Original Data

- The first row (200 | 276 | 72.5%) illustrates the activation rate of starshell.

- The following rows represents the cut-in rates (in yellow) of each ship and other details.

- Ship name followed by their luck stat in paranthesis. For example, Jintsu(13), Ooi(13), Yuudachi(20).

- As for the equipment: Torpedo CI setup were shown in blue, where the 3 gun CI setup was shown in orange.

- '|'  Shipname(Luck)  |  Cut-in  | Attack Chance |  Cut-In Rate  | Lv |    Equipment    |

NBSS













Data were compared to the previous exp'ts on the Base CI Chance and Effects of Searchlight .




IV - Combined Effects from Searchlight & Starshell

Exp't name: 照明弾検証 その2

Blog / Author: 艦これ-チラ裏検証- / by くうぼをきゅう

Exp't Date: July 15, 2014

Explanation:

To determine the combined increase in CI chance, if both searchlight + starshell were activated during night battle.
The test results were compared to previous experiments. 

Test Conditions:

- Map: 5-3-C,

- Morale 49.

- Always beyond minor damage(小破未满)

- Line Ahead vs Line Ahead.

- All test ships were using the 2 x torpedo CI setup (except Yukikaze). Yukikaze used the 3 gun CI setup. 

- Starshell equipped on both Yuudachi and Hibiki.

- For the first 150 battles, searchlight was on the flagship Jintsu, and night scout on the 6th ship (Naka). 'For the latter 150 battles, Jintsu & Naka swapped equipment. 

Data recorded only if starshell was activated, plus the ship holding searchlight must be above HP1.


Original Data

- Over 300 battles, Yuudachi (3rd position) activated the starshell for 66.7% of the total, where Hibiki (4th position) activated starshell for 23.7%. (Or 71% of the remaining).

-  Shipname(Luck)  |  Cut-in  | Attack Chance |  Cut-In Rate  | Lv |    Equipment    | LoS |

NBCI SLSS















Data were compared to the previous exp'ts on the Base CI Chance and Effects of Searchlight .





V - Health State & Cut-In Chances

Exp't name: ??? (Inazuma Test & Furutaka Test )

Blog / Author: ??? (Pasted on 検証スレ勝手にまとめ

Exp't Date: June, 2014

Explanation:

A series of experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects from health states on Cut-In chances, by using both Torpedo CI and Main gun CI. Test ships are Inazuma & Furutaka.


a). "Inazuma Test"

- Test Conditions:

  • Inazuma Kai, Lv150,
  • Flagship
  • Luck 59Initial(12) + marriage(6) + Maruyu(41)
  • Morale is not firmly controlled by the author.

- Explanation

  • Green = full health
  • Yellow = minor dmg
  • Orange = moderate dmg

- |   Equip.   |  #Atk. |  #CI  | #Single | CI Rate |  95% Conf. Intv   99% Conf. Intv  |.

NBCI HP














b). "Furutaka Test"

- Test Conditions

  • Furutaka Kai (Lv.131~133). 
  • Luck (50)
  • Flagship
  • Morale 40 ~ 49.
  • Map: 1-2.

- Explanation

  • Blue = full health
  • Orange = minor dmg
  • Pink = moderate dmg


Main Gun Cut-In

-  |  #Cut-In  | #Single #Total  | CI Rate | Theoretical | Diff |  95% Conf.Intv   99% Conf.Intv  |.

NBCIFURUTAKA3GUN















Torpedo Cut-In

-  |  #Cut-In  | #Single #Total  CI Rate | Theoretical Diff |  95% Conf.Intv   99% Conf.Intv  |.

NBCIFURUTAKA2TORP


















VI - More Tests on the Cut-In Chances (2014)

Exp't name:  VARIOUS

Blog / Author:  VARIOUS (Pasted on 検証スレ勝手にまとめ

Exp't Date: Before July, 2014

Explanation:

More tests with relatively higher credibility and larger samples.

All the following tests were done in morale >= 40.

Some reports were based on experiments shown above, with additional number crunching / illustration.

Unless otherwise mentioned, all tests below were done with non-flagship, under morale 40~49, and using formation Line Ahead.



a). "Evaluation of Luck, Placement & Chyuuha Modifiers"

- Explanation:

  • Relatively lower luck values. Thus capping is not considered too much.
  • Ships with the same luck stat are regarded as equivalent
  • Yukikaze (60) is regarded as equivalent to Shigure (50), in case of pure Torpedo cut-in.
NBCI - A
NBCI - B
NBCI - LUCK HP FS


































b). "Submarine Torpedo CI Chance"

source: https://8b40eaa819a95ca736613ae455c69f1cb3424509.googledrive.com/host/0B80mPtzxVnOddUtjcUtyN09XUVk/cutin.html#13_151

Placement

(Luck)

Full Health

(Sample size)

Minor Dmg.

(Sample size)

Chyuuha

(Sample size)

I-168     Flagship

(15)

49.1% (731) 40.0% (175) 64.9% (57)
I-19        (16) 34.3% (537) 34.6% (153) 59.6% (99)
I-401        (24) 41.3% (426) 42.6% (282) 56.8% (81)
I-8        (28) 44.7% (477) 40.3% (211) 61.4% (101)
I-58        (64) 63.6% (500) 64.3% (171) 84.6% (177)



c). "Comparison of Various Setups (Low Luck)"

- Explanation

  • Test ships being used for comparison are Yuudachi (20) & Hibiki (20).
  • Blue:  Torpedo *2.
  • Red:   Main *2 + Torpedo
  • Orange:   Main *3.
NBCI - C






















d). "Furutaka: Torpedo vs. Mixed CI"

- Explanation:

  • Furutaka (18)
  • Flagship
  • Blue: Torpedo *2
  • Red: Main + Torpedo  (the last row is the sum of the previous two)
NBCI - TYPE (fit size)













e). "Marriage & CI Chance"

- Explanation:

  • Purpose: to verify if marriage will boost CI chance (beside the increase in luck stat, of course).
  • Furutaka (18),  Yuubari (17)
  • Flagship
  • Main + Torpedo (mixed)
NBCI - Marriage (fit size)












f). "Mixed Cut-In: (High Luck)"

- Explanation

  • Shigure (Lv.135~136), Yukikaze (Lv.95~96)
  • Flagship
  • Akizuki.Gun★9,  T13.Air.Radar.Kai,  53cmBow(Oxy)Torpedo,
Shigure K2 Test Cut-In Attack Chance CI Rate
Luck (79) 337 400 84.3%
Yukikaze K Test Cut-In Attack Chance CI Rate
Luck (60) 143 194 73.7%






VI - Simplified Tables for Night Battle Cut-In Tests (2014 ~ 2015)

Exp't name:  VARIOUS

Blog / Author:  VARIOUS

Info Collection:  Unknown  (see http://mmoloda-kancolle.x0.com/image/163527.png

Exp't Date: June, 2014 ~ April, 2015

Explanation:

Originally posted on Shitaraba BBS, (thread #308 from スレ17). The anonymous author categorized & tabulated all relevant data from スレ13  to スレ17on the night battle CI chances. The test conditions were believed as follow:

  • Beyond moderate damage.
  • Data collected from both friendly & abyssal ships.
  • No searchlight equipment.

Torpedo Cut-In:

Flagship

Luck CI Chance Sample

Size

Source

(Spreadsheet / BBS)

O 13 39.7% 1303 - Pic1
O 15 47.4% 1234 -
O 30 (63.8%) (260)
O 50 71.6% 1111
O 58 75.8% 400
O 59 77.0% 974
O 79 75.8% 707
-
10 (24.4%) (270)
13 30.5% 860
16 35.0% 948
20 32.5% 486
24 41.1% 1023
28 43.2% 949
30 45.8% 406
50 64.9% 504
60 65.8% 614
64 63.9% 587
79 64.5% 538

Main Gun Cut-In:

Flagship

Luck CI Chance Sample

Size

Source

(Spreadsheet / BBS)

O 30 48.9% 446
O 50 (65.2%) (345)
O 59 71.% 435
O 74 68.7% (323)
-
20 30.9% 815
32 (35.0%) (237)
40 (48.6%) (247)
50 (52.2%) (255)
60 (52.4%) (250)
74 (55.2%) (375)

Mixed Cut-In:

Flagship

Luck CI Chance Sample

Size

Source

(Spreadsheet / BBS)

O 10 (42.5%) (240)
O 17 (53.5%) (200)
O 18 (52.9%) (361)
O 20 (46.4%) (222)
O 59 79.3% 357
O 60 (73.7%) (194)
O 79 84.3% 400
-
1 14.4% 201
10 29.6% 460
13 29.7% 526
20 35.9% 1729
60 (62.0%) (245)