Evaluation of Radar Modifiers on DA Chance

Intro to the Exp't []

This is my 6th part of the ASTRE project, in which one exp't was done in 2 days. The exp't was designed as comparison with Exp't F, and trying to estimate different radar modifiers on DA chance. Since DA activation chances are generally lower than CI, I used a larger sample size (~300 Attack Chances). According to limited time & resources, I used fatigue leveling method at 3-2a. Besides, test ships will tank damage, but HP always beyond 50% (moderate damage).

[ Exp't K ][]

Information About the Exp't[]

- Fleet & Test ship condition:

Morale <20 (severe fatigue / red face)
Always beyond moderate damage (中破)
Line ahead
AS+ achieved for every battle
No Saiun equipped

- Enemy condition:

Either Line Ahead or DL.

- Test ship & equipment:

[ Exp't K ][]

- Completed in 2 days (2h + 2h + 1h + 3h)

- # Battles & engagement form counting

Total	+//	-//	gT	rT
210	105	57	29	19

- Fleet total LoS: 448 -> 458 (+9% DA Chance)

	Ashigara Kai {Flagship} lv.48~> 68	Tone K2 lv.96~>97	Myoukou K2 lv.95~>96	Chikuma K2 lv.95~>96	Haguro K2 lv.95~>96	Fusou Kai lv.95~>97
#ATK	304	305	284	269	267	272
#DA	233	194	178	185	181	182
Actual DA Rate	76.6%	63.6%	62.7%	68.8%	67.8%	66.9%
DA Chance Estimate	77% = 50%+15%+[3%]+(9%)	63% = 50%+[3%]+(9%)+<1%>	62% = 50%+[3%]+(9%)	70% = 50%+[10%]+(9%)+<1%>	69% = 50%+[10%]+(9%)	69% = 50%+[6%]+(12%)+<1%>
Difference (Est - Actual)	+0.4%	-0.6%	-0.7%	+1.2%	+1.2%	+2.1%

- #Buckets: 51

- #Non-S: 40

Comparative Study on the Effects of Different Radars (DA)[]

Using test results from Exp't F. Test ships were kept w/ the same placement, using same equipment (except radar), very close FLoS, and having negligible level differences.

	[ Exp't F ] FLoS: ~449~	[ Exp't K ] FLoS: ~453~	Difference [Radar %]	Error (90% C)
Tone K2	63.1%	63.6% (#33)	+0.5%	+/- 4.5%
Myoukou K2	60.3%	62.7% (#33)	+2.4%	+/- 4.7%
Chikuma K2	59.6%	68.8% (#32)	+9.2%	+/- 4.7%
Haguro K2	57.6%	67.8% (#32)	+10.2%	+/- 4.9%
Fusou Kai	60.7%	66.9% (FuMO)	+6.2%	+/- 4.7%

Brief Conclusion:[]

- Comparative:

Radars, especially those with good stats, will marginally increase a ship's DA chance.

Between the 2 surface radars, #32 gives up to 8% higher DA chance than #33.
Assuming radars do not reduce DA chance, #33 boosts DA chance by 0% ~ 6%.
Assuming data were not off the 90% interval, #32 boosts DA chance by around 10%, within 5% ~ 14.5%
Same assumption as above: FuMO boosts DA chance by around 6%, no more than 11%

- ASTRE:

Using comparative method,K-Test No.6a+b & No.15 suggests a modifier of +10% DA chance for #32 radar (error +/- 3.8%). This is consistent with our finding from this exp't. For future exp't I will assume this value (+10%) as #32's DA chance modifier.
Using ASTRE, K-Test No.14 suggests a modifier of +6% DA chance for #33 radar (error +/- 5.2%). This is within our tolerance interval above (0~6%). For future estimation I'll try a best fitted value (+3% DA chance) as #33's DA chance modifier, until further evaluation. Due to limited reports & samples size, I will be more cautious on this assumption.
Both CAV has 1%~2% higher DA chance than their counterpart CA. If we assume CA & CAV have the same base DA chance at the same FLoS, ~~this suggests the effects from the type of seaplane (Zuiun vs Type 0 Recon), since Zuiun has essentially better stats (+6 LoS).~~ The effects, however, could owe to larger plane slot as well. Since the same thing was obsvered from Exp't F. For future exp't I will count for this minor factor (CAV's larger plane slot & better seaplane) when calculating trigger rate estimates.