User blog:Reikyu/Twinkle Little Star Shell

This entry will look at Star Shell setups that you don't use, and the approximate activation rate of setups you do.

Originally I was thinking to myself, why not stick two Star Shells on Ooyodo for combined fleet. You have two clt with no room for yasen equipment. Two DD in either AACI setups or torp torp lookout setups with no room for yasen equipment. BB/CA running 2 guns + nightscout + 1 extra slot. And finally Ooyodo muling nightscout, searchlight, star shell, and why not one more star shell so my BB/CA can run an AP shell. I figure she won't do much damage anyways and she's more support to boost the other 4-5 heavy hitters (and those cut in DD can be heavy hitters). But will it work?

Short answer: No

'''Experiment 1: 5-3 first node (yasen node). Level 1~4 ships used solo in flag, 3 star shells equipped (BB, FBB, CA used)'''

28 / 43 star shell procs = ~65%

Clearly you can't stack starshells on the same ship. That activation rate is pathetic for equipping all 3.

'''Experiment 2: 5-3 first node (yasen node). Level 1~4 ships used three at a time, one star shell equipped on each ship (DD, CL, AV used since any 3 slot ships were used in experiment 1)'''

30 / 30 star shell procs = ~100%

And for the breakdown of which ship proc'd the star shell:

first ship: 20 / 30 = ~66.7%

second ship: 7 / 10 = ~70%

third ship: 3 / 3 = ~100%

'''Experiment 3: 1-5 first node (yasen). Level 1~4 ships used three at a time, one star shell equipped on each ship (any ship that can use a star shell)'''

To determine if yasen nodes made a difference compared to regularly entering the night battle phase, i sent ships to 1-5 and entered the night battle to examine the activation rates. Overall it seems like no difference.

67 / 69 star shell procs = ~97.1%

And the breakdown of which ship proc'd the star shell:

first ship: 43 / 69 = ~62.3%

second ship: 21 / 26 = ~80.7%

third ship: 3 / 5 = ~60%

Activation Chance

It's clear that the ships activate their star shells in a top down order. If the first ship fails their check then the second ship attempts, then the third, etc. It also looks like each star shell activates at roughly the same rate. If we assume that's the case and add up all the successful activations and attempts, we come to a grand total of:

125 activations / 186 attempts = ~67.2%

I don't know statistics but I guess there's about 7% margin of error with 95% confidence

If we assume the activation rate is roughly 67% per star shell, bringing a second would up your success rate to about 89%. I was originally expecting a 50% -> 75% result but 67% still sounds pretty good to me. Is it worth swapping out Bismarck's AP shell for the another 22% star shell assist boost or whatever it is you're setting up? Up to you, but now you know!