Talk:Morale/Fatigue/@comment-69.178.68.196-20150418081149/@comment-115.42.230.2-20150418083654

what I'd like to think for normal expeditions is that the success chance per sparkled ship is 100% (maximum possible chance) / 6 (maximum number of ships), rounded down (which is a flat 16%). So even with 6 sparkled ships, that gives you 6 x 16% = 96% success, still a 4% chance to fail Great Success.

Of course, this isn't 100% true but from countless drum expeditions (with 6 sparkles), one can almost be certain to come to this conclusion.