Talk:Fall 2019 Event/@comment-31894513-20200110022541/@comment-103.208.220.147-20200111080246

That's because we've only calculated 50% from the fact that the coin has two sides. The person who flips the coin himself also has a bunch of factors to influence the result. As long as these factors aren't accounted for, there will always be chance to not get 50% from a fixed number of tries. The crucial part that separates RNG from a totally random event: While there'll even always be chance to get 90 tails in 100 tries, something like that doesn't exist in RNG if you keep using it properly.

If you want to see a good example of RNG at work exclusively for a single player, check the expeditions on KC3. You should be able to see that the percentages to get Great Success from solely overdrumming certain exp and to get buckets from Exp 2 consistently stay within programmed small margin of error no matter how many times you've done them. Mine have always stayed within 3% away from what the wiki guide states, 41%. Exp 38 has been done 1361 times without sparkling and 39.2% of them resulted in GS. If I were to give RNG the context of flipping a coin, I'd say with confidence that it's always 100% chance that it will get 45-55 tails in 100, or 90-110 in 200. The probability to get 90 in 100 is zero.

So, you see that it's the consistency of staying close to the set chance that gives RNG its own character - a legit pseudo-random mechanism in computers. I just don't see the devs make drops truly random when the expeditions are run by RNG. This is why I suspect that the drop RNG is shared between players.