User blog comment:Hayashi H/Winter 2016 Guide/@comment-26154973-20160217085122/@comment-26154973-20160218164041

Also, based on some stupid simulation, win-rates:

Red-T 2% Head-on 50% Parallel 60%

(no scratches, pure CL1/CL2, with different rates can be 1%/30%/40%, <1%/15%/20%, etc. correspondingly).