User blog comment:TenkouKuugen/LBAS - Take Care of Your Fairies/@comment-26821064-20171129005422/@comment-28112544-20171201033945

Heya sorry for late reply. I've been all over the place since clearing the event 2 days ago, trying to update replays and stuff.

Yes you're correct: the remaining enemy eFP is what your fleet will face during the aerial phase. Unfortunately there's no way (to my best knowledge) to predict the outcome, due to the RNG nature of how shotdown % works.

Recall the Aerial Combat table: AP shoots down 0-60% enemy planes, 0-80% for AS and 0-100% for AS+. Now the scary truth: yes, even for AS+ your fairies can derp!

In that example I've chosen a "middle of the road" approximation (30-40%?), but in reality it's all down to the RNG. There're good days and bad days, but the idea is to maximize your chance of getting good outcome if you have to gamble :)