User blog:Kitahara/Recording drum expedition success rates

After Faeriedust made a post about not receiving great success on expedition 38 despite having 4 sparkled ships (which should add up to 116% according to wiki information), and the subsequent posting of information from either secondary or anecdotal sources (e.g 8% bonus chance per sparkled, 99% cap on great success etc). I started recording my drum expeditions to test how accurate these claims are. I have basicaslly two objectives with recording this: As adding extra drums has convincingly been shown to be irrelevant, I will not record it, although drums equipped remain constant (i.e bare minimum) across all expeditions so it shouldn't matter anyway.
 * 1) Try to find the bonus success rate each sparkled ship adds, if it is 16% like regular expeditions, or not
 * 2) If there is a cap on success rate, and if so, what is the cap?



This project is still very much in its infancy and requires far more runs for a decent sample size in addition to testing different numbers of sparkled ships, but based on preliminary observations, either sparkles seem to add around 12% success rate per ship (assuming base 50% success rate), or the great success rate cap lies around 90%. Its still too early to come to conclusions though.

I plan on updating this every now and then, until I have 100 sorties on each variant, and add a test for 2 sparkled ships (maybe more later on).