Talk:Expedition/@comment-24.180.136.44-20140607021452/@comment-24921408-20140607115207

14 in a row great success is quite significant, although not firm enough. If I say that you are at least 5% lucky (i.e. you are at least 1/20 people to achieve this), then the chances of great success is at least, 80.7%, which is quite much higher above the 50% mark (which I'd just assume the actual success rate to be), and what most other people experience, but not enough to really affirm some 100% mechanism.

However, out of so many people who commented here, no one else had this kind of experience, so I'd place you to be more of at least 1/100 people (i.e. 1% lucky), and then the chances of great success would be at least 71.96%. Still very high, but again, you can't use it to affirm a 100% mechanism.

If you do 135 expeditions, and all are great success, then I'll say that even if you're at least 0.1% lucky (1/1000 people), the chances of great success is >95%, which will be pretty good evidence of the 100% mechanism. To be very sure, if you do get 688 expeditions in a row of great success, then even if you're 1/1000 people to achieve this, the chances of great success has to be >99% for this to happen, which will then be close to confirmed, statistically speaking. (but of course, you could be 0.01% lucky, then it won't be as confirmed)