User blog comment:DynamitMC/What the Drop Rates Actually Mean/@comment-27240709-20160305053314

Wow, that's a lot of impressive work. Very well done. I was thinking of writing something similar but felt like it was too much work.

I do offer one suggestion, mainly to make the info more accessible to the non-math inclined. Carve out a specific subtitle for the equation you're using and highlight it in color or bolded. I'd also suggest using an example and work out the calculation.

p=Probability of finding Amagi after n number of S-ranks.

x=Drop % (2% or 0.02)

n=# of S-ranks (Pointing out this the number of S-rank or "successful" runs and NOT all the runs performed)

Equation 1: p=1-(1-x)^n

Equation 1B: n=log(1-p, 1-x) (Same as above but reordered to solve for n. Can be set in excell spreadsheet to generate predicted number of S-ranks needed to achieve p (say 50% probability or 95% probability of drop)

Interesting analysis at the end. I think it'd be interesting especially when we have multiple farming routes and options to consider the resource costs and projected drop successes of those routes, but that's alas too many variables and thinking for me, lol.