Talk:Winter 2016 Event/@comment-84.84.145.121-20160219164842/@comment-4130506-20160219170808

Uhh no.

If the ship that has already dropped will never drop again, you'll get the ship 100% when all other ships have already dropped.

But the one Zhouanzhe used is that all players have a probable 37.2% chance of getting the ship in 50 s-rank sorties. That formula will never reach 100%. That means if a player's luck is really that bad (god of poverty bad), one will never get the ship no matter how many sorties you make.