Thread:Homuhomu123/@comment-24921408-20150202200415/@comment-24921408-20150203005901

Thanks for the explanation and the list of values! I'll be able to work with this for some time.

I went to the wiki article which Mathiaszealot linked in the comments to check it out. It'll probably take me some time to digest it fully, but I did a quick check. Using the worked example on the wiki (have a quick look at the Posterior Probability Density Function Example) for 7 heads (successes) and 3 tails (so, 10 attempts), I ran that in my Matlab script with the values 7/10 and had it output the lower bounds as 43.56% and upper as 86.49% for CI of 90%. Then, since the PDF is provided with the graph in the example, I ran an integral using those very same bounds. Result? 90%, exactly what is needed! So yes, the formula stands up to verification!

I'll go work with the one that you just gave me, since it sounds interesting, and looks like it can be used for verification of other statistical sources, say, if the probabilities reported by someone looks suspicious. I'll see what I can do with it!

P.S. I forgot to mention that I really appreciate all the hard work in collecting statistics that you've been doing! And it's great to talk to another engineer who takes his free time to analyse games in such depth! People would think we're crazy =P