Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-26486243-20151124131335

I did a quick calculation regarding the probability of my current situation of having 198 S-ranks in E3 without getting Umikaze, Mizuho, Akizuki or Maruyu.

Umikaze - 1.1% on S-rank

Mizuho - 1% on S-rank

Akizuki - 1.7% on S-rank

Maruyu - 2% on S-rank.

Probability: 0.989^198 * 0.99^198 * 0.983^198 * 0.98^198 = 9.4^-6, or 0.00094% chance.

To put it another way, the chance of someone being denied their drops as much as me is currently less than 1 in 106415.

This joins the unlikeliness of getting branched to furniture coin node 16 times in a row in 3-2 when I cleared it initially (1 in 65536) and the unlikeliness of getting branched to everything but boss node in 2-3 last month 60 times in a row (1 in 1766850000000).

The only other person in this wiki to have equivalently bad luck is Kazami Yuuka, who spent 192 attempts to get Taihou (chance: 1 in 144361).

Hearing your complaints about not getting Graf in something as paltry as 40 attempts is like complaining to a homeless man how small your mansion is.