Talk:Winter 2017 Event/@comment-27475362-20170221200523/@comment-108.88.197.98-20170221202651

Your chance per run doesn't improve, but you can estimate the probability of how unlikely it is for you to do 100 S-ranks and not get her!

100 runs gives a "probability of 1 U dropping" at 50.6%. So in a sample size of thousands of TTK, 50.6% of them should get 1 U within 100 S-ranks.

And 49.4% will have done 100 S-ranks and not got her.

For 200 S-ranks, ~25% of TTK still will not have gotten one, so try to remain sanguine about it. There's always the next event (or the one after that, etc etc), is what you should be telling yourself. Like a chant, that slowly sends you descending into madness. The madness will protect you from the cruel reality of the RNG.