Talk:Construction/@comment-108.68.184.177-20150617105635/@comment-26154973-20150617121210

http://unlockacgweb.galstars.net/Kancollewiki/viewCreateShipLog?sid=155

dbinom(0, 150 / 6, 1224 / 29376 ~ 3.9% - 4.4%) ~ 32% - 37% for failure rate in 150k resources, so it's not really a terrible luck, at least in theory. 4/6/6/2 yields about 20 ships and Shioi is not the highest in probability, so 100% / 20 > 4%. There is also more cheaper recipe with 1000 trials, 3.5/4.5/4.5/2/1, dbinom(0, 150 / 4.5, 47 / 1029 ~ 3.4% - 6%) ~ 13% - 32% for failure rate in 150k resources.