User blog:Homuhomu123/Further Study on the Factors Affecting Trigger Rates of Artillery Spotting

Abstract

 * This is the 2nd part of my ASTRE (Artillery Spotting Trigger Rate Estimate) project, in which 1 experiment was done, namely Exp't C.
 * We will accumulate more data, and use those data to evaluate our previous hypothesis and/or come up with new ones. For convenience, we will now assume a fatigue (red face) modifier of -12% when calculating the estimates..
 * For more information on the project, you may want to review the 1st part (Exp't A & B) ..

Information About the Exp't
Objective: To accumulate more data for further analysis. Also, we may determine the fatigue (red face) modifer on the trigger rates of Artillery Spotting.

Fundamental Assumptions: Based on the page Artillery Spotting

Terminology:
 * "#ATK" = Total number of attacks"
 * "#DA/CI" = Number of double attacks or cut-ins. A double attack is only counted once.
 * "#DA/CI_HIT" = Number of DA/CI which inflicted non-scratch damage (>10% of the target's current HP). If both double attacks hit the target, they're only counted once.

Test Ship & Equipment



- Assume different seaplane will not affect the trigger rate of CI. - #22 Kai 4 Surface (+8 Accuracy)

- #32 Surface (+8 Accuracy)

- FuMO AA radar (+10 Accuracy)

>>> Data shall be recorded only if test ships are in severe fatigue & above moderate damage (except Fuso). Fuso always stays in a moderately damaged status.

- Illustration on how data were collected.

[ Exp't C ]
Completed in 1 Days (Total of 5h)

BATTLES:  147

Formation: LINE AHEAD

FLEET total LOS = ~381 (+6.5% DA, +10.0% CI)

NON-S RESULTS: 16

Buckets used: 11 (1)

Companion CV(L): Taihou lv 91, Junyou lv 80

Wildcard: Amatsukaze

NOTE:
 * The #sorties Fuso was in a moderately damaged status:  1st -> 147th, consists 100% of all the sorties
 * ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS (EXCEPT FUSO), ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS.

Findings from Exp't C

 * Fatigue doesn't seem to affect CI chance.
 * Actual DA chances are far below our estimates. This further proves the existence of fagitue modifier, of at least -12%.
 * Both CI & DA boost shelling accuracy considerably, if compared with single attacks
 * Under the assumption of fatigue modifier, Fuso's actual DA rate is 5.5% below our estimates. This could be a proof for the moderate damage penalty (around 5%)
 * Giving the same accuracy bonus from equipments, Chikuma's DA Accuracy is much lower than Fuso's. This agrees with our previous hypothesis that setting up appropriate caliber guns for a BB(V) would increase its accuracy.
 * Under sever fatigue, Cut-in (with radar) is much more frequent (+30%) than DA, with almost the same accuracy as DA.

[ Exp't D ]
Test ships & equipment: (uploaded later, too tired)

Completed in 1 Day (Total of 5h)

BATTLES: 151

Formation: LINE HEAD

Fleet total LOS = 347 (initial) -> 363 (final) ... ( +4.5% DA, +6.5 CI )

NON-S RESULTS: 17

BUCKETS USED: 32(1)

CV(L): Junyou Kai Ni lv 86 -> 91

Wildcard: Amatsukaze lv 47->55

>> ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS, ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS.

Illustration on How Data Were Collected


 Severe fatigue for the 3 test ships, and moderately damaged BB Fuso.















 Data collection & counting (using )`













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<p style="font-size:14.6666669845581px;"> Illustration on How to keep Fuso moderately damaged (Map 3-2-A)