User blog:Homuhomu123/Shelling Accuracy Test Results

Foreword
This post is used for saving experiment data from other Kancolle testers, on shelling accuracy during combat. For a higher level of objectivity, I will refrain from concluding or formulating from anything below. In order to help readers understand the exp't, I attached some information beside the original data according to my understanding of the experiments. Therefore you're always welcome to evaluate my work & translation.

Since the following tests are all about probability, data from smaller sample sizes would be surrounded by parenthesis, indicating less reliability. For more information on the significance of larger sample sizes, you may visit Calculating Confidence Intervals for Underlying Probabilities by Winzongod.

Since some info below were pasted from websites with no explicit citation, please contact me if you know any of the sources. Also, if you consider any unauthorized using of exp't data, you'll have my apology and associated content shall be deleted immediately.

If you noticed an error on my translation, ambiguity in the language, any important info were missing, or just need help with anything, please leave me a comment. I hope the following will be helpful.

I - Tentative Shelling Accuracy Formula  (2014)
Reports / Exp't name:


 * 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・その3「損傷の影響」
 * 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・索敵の影響
 * 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・単縦陣まとめ
 * 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・装備の影響

Author: ??? (Arranged & Posted on 半製造BSｱﾚｺﾚ雑記帳)

Date: June ~ October, 2014

Explanation: 

A beta formula regarding day battle shelling accuracy (single attack) had been derived, based on earlier experiments data from players. According to the exp't findings, shelling accuracy equals to the   Accuracy Term   minus   Evasion Term. The 2 terms are affected by attacking ship's level, equipment bonus on accuracy, and evasion stat of the target. '.. Accuracy Term  =  1  +  sqrt( (Attacker's Lv  -  1)  *5 )  / 100  +  Equipment_Bonus / 100 '

'.. Evasion Term  =  Evasion / 75                             .... for  Evasion ≦ 37.5： '

'                            =  Evasion / (Evasion + 37.5)       .... for  Evasion ＞37.5： '


 * >> Shelling Accuracy =  Accuray Term  -  Evasion Term


 * >> Dodge Rate = 100% - Shelling Accuracy



 Accuracy Term: 

As the attacking ship's level grows, ceteris paribus, its accuracy term increases from 100% to 122% (with diminishing return).

The offense fleet uses Line Ahead.

Derived from test ships with level 1, level 3 and level 90 only, thus not necessarily accurate.

Evasion Term: 

For ships with low evasion, dodge rate positively & linearly relates to its evasion stat.

When evasion stat passes 37.5, diminishing return expected.

Attacking fleet uses Line Ahead.

Not necessarily accurate.

 Limitation: 

The above formula, however, had its own constraints due to the following reasons:
 * Luck modifier was not considered.
 * Line Ahead formation only.
 * Has to be in full morale (not sparkled)
 * Overweight penalty & fit gun bonus not included.
 * Day battle, single attacks only
 * Ship type (carrier??)

The 4 sub-sections below serve as experimental basis for the tentative formula. The last sub-section is a revised formula by the author in recognition of the luck modifier (the existence of which is still to be further verified).

(a) Health State & Shelling Accuracy
source: 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・その3「損傷の影響」


 * A fleet with level 3 ships were sent to map 2-1-1. Hits from BOTH sides were recorded along with their health. Data compared & combined with previous experiments.


 * Since the abyssal ships had very similar evasion stats (12. 14. 15. 16), thus the shelling accuracy on which will not be distinguished.


 * Despite smaller samples from the attacking ships (chuuha, taiha), it seems that:


 * Enemy's health state will not affect your ship's accuracy.
 * Your ship's accuracy cannot be lower significantly when moderately / severly damaged. (Assume the attacking ship won't gain accuracy when considerably damaged)
 * Shelling_accuracy_&_Health_State.png

(b) Success in Detection Phase & Shelling Accuracy
source: 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・索敵の影響


 * Placing a high level BB / SS as flagship, fully loaded with seaplane scouts to ensure the success in detection. The other ships are low level ships for test purpose. (either Lv.1 or 3).


 * Line Ahead
 * Map 3-2-1 or 2-1-1
 * "Which ship attacks which" was specifically recorded.
 * Attacks from the flagship, of course, is not included
 * Data were compared with previous experiments, where the fleet falied to detect the enemy (due to low FLoS).


 * Despite smaller samples from successful detection, this factor seems to be irrelevant with shelling accuracy.

.

(c) Verification of the Shelling Accuracy Formula (2014)
 source:   「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・単縦陣まとめ


 * The formula is now being verified based on previous experiment data. Those tests were all performed under the following condition:


 * Maps: 3-2-1, 2-1-1, 3-3-1
 * Morale 47~49.
 * Ship levels: Lv.1, 3 or ~90,
 * No accuracy bonus from equipment.
 * Using formation Line Ahead.
 * "Which ship attacks which" was specifically recorded.


 * The following conditions were NOT firmly controlled:


 * Ship type
 * Engagement form
 * Health state
 * Success in detection phase



(d) Effects from Equipment Bonus on Accuracy
source: 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・装備の影響


 * A fleet of Lv.91~92 ships were sent to map 3-3-1, Each had equipment(s) giving +8 bonus on accuracy. Note that BB(V) was not included in this test thus "fit gun modifer" was not a concern.


 * Using formation Line Ahead
 * Neither fatigued nor sparkled.
 * DD, CL, CA, CAV.
 * Success in detection guaranteed.
 * Despite of high ship level (~90), the +8 bonus from equipment did provide ~8% bonus on tested accuracy.



(e) Shelling Accuracy Formula Revised  (2015)
source: 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・最新の推定式

Date: ~ April, 2015

Explanation:


 * As more data were collected, the old accuracy formula is to be revised for better estimation. The new formula (2015, April) recognizes the luck modifier (existence of which is to be verified). The results, however, are not very different from the previous one.


 * This formula is still under constant review thus subject to change.

'.. Accuracy Term  = 1  +  ( sqrt( Attacker's Lv )  - 1 ) / 45  +  Equipment_Bonus / 100  +  Luck / 1000 '

<p style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin-left:48px;">'<span style="line-height:16.8999996185303px;color:rgb(0,0,204);">.. Evasion Term  = Evasion / 75                           .... for  <span style="color:rgb(0,0,204);line-height:16.8999996185303px;">Evasion ≦ 37.5： '

<p style="color:rgb(0,0,0);margin-left:48px;">'<span style="line-height:16.8999996185303px;color:rgb(0,0,204);">                            = Evasion / (Evasion + 37.5)      .... for  <span style="color:rgb(0,0,204);line-height:16.8999996185303px;">Evasion ＞37.5： '


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);">>> Shelling Accuracy =  <span style="line-height:16.8999996185303px;color:rgb(238,0,0);">Accuray Term <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);"> -  <span style="line-height:16.8999996185303px;color:rgb(0,0,204);">Evasion Term


 * >> Dodge Rate = 100% - Shelling Accuracy

II - Double Line vs Line Ahead
Reports / Exp't name: 「艦これ」砲撃命中率について・複縦陣まとめ

Author: ??? (Arranged & Posted on 半製造BSｱﾚｺﾚ雑記帳)

Date: January, 2015

Explanation: 


 * Same test condition as section I, except choosing Double Line (DL) instead of Line Ahead (LA) formation.


 * This experiment serves as a comparison to the previous tests, from which the accuracy bonus from DL could be identified & measured.


 * All accuracy below pertain to hit rates on the abyssal fleet.


 * Shelling_accuracy_&_Double_line.png

 PART (A): 


 * In the first part (map 3-2-1, friendly ship level = Lv1), we witnessed an increase of ~20% on shelling accuracy.


 * Y-Axis: accuracy
 * X-Axis: evasion stat (abyssal)


 * The blue dots represent experimental accuracy obtained by using Doule Line.


 * The red dots represents those by using Line Ahead.
 * The vertical streches are the confidence interval for each data point. (95%)
 * Green dots are the differences.


 *  PART (B): 


 * In the second part (map 2-1-1, friendly ship level Lv.3), we witnessed an accuracy cap at around 97%.


 * To illustrate, the hit rates for Line Ahead was 81.8 ~ 86.2%, which only increased to ~97% when using Double Line.


 * Shelling_accuracy_&_Double_line_(Table).png

III - Preliminary Test on the Overweight Penalty (Kongou)
Report / Exp't name: ???

'''Author / Blog: ??? ''' (Repasted on  PPT BBS / 看板KanColle  )

Date: Last Summer, 2014

Explanation:

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">A test regarding the overweight penalty on FBB has been conducted (source unknown). Test map is believed to be 1-1-1, and date is assumed to be late summer since it was repasted as early as September, 2014. Despite that, test ship conditions are all given in the chart.

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Also, please be aware of the accuracy cap (~97%).

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">

<h4 style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;"> Simplified Test Results

IV - The "Fit Gun" Mechanics on BB (Red Morale Test)
Report / Exp't name: 1-1 赤疲労検証(623)(624) <p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Author / Blog: ??? (Posted by <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'TimesNewRoman';font-size:16px;line-height:normal;">36butm520 @ Shitaraba BBS) 

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Date: January 21, 2015

Explanation:

All the experiment data were posted on 2 threads @ Shitaraba BBS, by user 36butm520.

Test map 1-1. Ships were mostly Lv 90+. In order to avoid the accuracy cap (around 97%), test ships were kept in red morale to deliberately lower their accuracy..

For easier viewing on the equipment set up, the following icons will be used:

<p style="margin-top:0.4em;margin-bottom:0.5em;"> _  .... Empty slot.

▲ …. Fit Gun. (eg., 46cm on Yamato)

'<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'TimesNewRoman';font-size:16px;line-height:normal;">X   .... 'Overweight Gun (eg. 41cm on Kongou)

''>> Since the true probablity are around 50%, tests with sample sizes lower than 400 and/or irrelevant information will NOT be shown in the table below. You may check the original post to see the complete test results.''



Original Data

 * Please visit 1-1 赤疲労検証(623) / (624)' to check them.

V - Night Battle DA Accuracy Bonus by using 20.3cm (CA.CAV)
<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Report / Exp't name: 20.3主砲 VS 15.5副砲

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Author / Blog: ???

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Date: Fall, 2014 ?

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Rough Translation: Homuhomu123

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Explanation: 

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">Kancolle twitter posted on Sept.18, 2014:

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;text-align:center;">''>07<span style="color:rgb(207,207,207);font-family:'HelveticaNeue',Roboto,'SegoeUI',Calibri,sans-serif;font-size:14.4444446563721px;line-height:16px;white-space:pre-wrap;">▼ [Night Battle] related stats improved for [CA] and its variation! Greater accuracy and evasion. Bonus from 20.3cm (and variation). ''

<p style="font-size:14.4444446563721px;">This s tudy was conducted to verify that, especially DA accuracy bonus from using 20.3cm on CA(V).

A total of 100 battles, map 5-3-C (night battle). The author divided test ships into 2 fleets using different calibur guns:
 *  Fleet No.1:   <~ 20.3cm x2
 * Haguro Lv51, Kako Lv46, Ashigara Lv44, Atago Lv45, Kumano Lv50, Kitakami Lv98
 *  Fleet No.2:   <~ 15.5cm(sec) x2
 * Takao Lv50, Furutaka Lv46, Myoukou Lv43, Nachi Lv46, Suzuya Lv50, Ooi Lv98

<u style="font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;">Equipment on the remaining slots:
 * For CA:    Type 3 shell + #21 Radar
 * For CAV:   Prototype Seiran (+1 acc) + #21 Radar
 * For CLT:   Type A Ko-hyoteki

Test ship condition:


 * beyond moderate damage


 * morale = 49

Original Data