User blog:DynamitMC/What the Drop Rates Actually Mean

What Do The Drop Rates Actually Mean
Hey Fellow Teitokus, in this topic, I am going to show you what the drop rates of ships mean, in a mathematical way.

You might have wondered "How much is my chance to get Prinz?", then taken a look at the drop rates either from here or another website (such as poi). "Oh, it is 0.3 percent. Okay". Even though you saw how little it is, you started farming anyway. But how many runs will it take? Are your resources going to be able to bear the heavy burden of limitless runs? Here, I'll try to give you an idea about how long it can take for you to drop a kanmusu.

Here, I'll use the formula P(A) = 1 - P(A'), which means "The probability of something happening = 1 - the probability of it not happening". So, if our drop rate is 2%, our chances of dropping it in 10 times is = (1 - 98%^10) which equals to 18%.

I'll give an example from 2016 Winter Event :

Here you see some of E-2 boss node drops in easy difficulty. Let's assume that you want Amagi.

Your chance of dropping her in 10 runs is 18%. Only lucky admirals will be able to do this.

Your chance of dropping her in 30 runs is almost 1/2.

In 100 runs it is 87%, which is a very good rate. You'll only fail this if you get very unlucky.

In 200 runs, Amagi is almost guaranteed. If you fail this much, you must have been cursed. Go purify yourself or something.

Note that the 100% chances you see are INCORRECT. Those values are very high such as 99.999%. So there is no such thing as a guaranteed drop, i'm sorry.

In this situation, I prefer to use 70-80% drop rate which is quite safe to assume in my calculations. So, I should be getting amagi somewhere between 50-100 runs.

As for the total consumption, I use average min and average max values which come from my total run trials assumption. The resources you spend on this map depends on which route you use. It is strongly recommended to use the northern route in farming as it will cost considerably lower compared to the southern route. Even if it doesn't matter much, in 50 to 100 runs it will matter a lot.

Here, some other examples :

Lets compare these drop rates. For instance, for Prinz. Her drop rate is insanely low, meaning that you must be insane for farming her with that drop rate. Anyway, let's say that you are farming for her. We see that her drop rate is higher on T node, but that's the final boss node. No one is crazy enough to farm her there, especially in Hard mode, forget that. But you might go for S node in which it is fairly easy to get S ranks. But even in 100 tries, your chance of getting her will be only 31%. Getting her in 200 tries will be like flipping a coin. I pray for sanity for those who are farming Prinz in Hard mode.

But for some reason, drop rate of Prinz seems to be much higher in lower difficulties (which we didn't think it would be). I don't know why either, these are what is reported in poi website. So you should try farming for her on those difficulties. I won't tell you which nodes, go to poi website and learn how to check a drop rate by yourself. (It is the best option to do by yourself)

All of us had different experiences. Some lucky #### got their drops in like first 5 attempts while others couldn't get what they wanted in 300 runs. And some ran out of their resources during the process. The RNG element of the game is always there, but you should know what you are aiming for and whether or not you can achieve it. Let's see something crazy :

In E-1, Akizuki only drops in Hard Mode I node. But the chance of dropping her is incredibly small, meaning that, if you try to go for her on this map, you'll most likely fail. You can't blame RNG for this failure. BUT, fortunately she drops in another map!

If you check the map, almost all of you will agree with me to farm Akizuki on M node which is much easier and cheaper to reach. As for the small differences of her drop rate, that much is trivial compared to the amount of tries and resources you'll be spending.

I came up with an opinion about these drop rates. You may wish to accept it or not. I'll just write what i think of them:
 * 4% or higher : Relatively easy to drop. If your target has this much chance, go definitely farm her!
 * Around 3% : Easy to farm. Getting 50 S ranks should give you a very high chance to drop her. Give up when the map is too hard to get S ranks reliably.
 * Around 2% : Be prepared to sortie 100 times. Make sure your resources are ready. Of course it may take less or more than 100, but 100 is a good deal.
 * Around 1% : Well, good luck getting her >.<
 * Less than 1% : I hope she drops in the next event T_T

Well, that's it. I hope this helped you. And for those who want to see more or compare drop rates, I'll put more examples below.

(In this one, it took me 110 S ranks to get Umikaze, which equals to 89% drop chance)

All of these percentages are taken from poi statistics.