Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-26898458-20151203031127/@comment-91.121.132.228-20151203034414

Actually, it's not necessarily the case that every drop is independent. While there's no statistical evidence for it not being so, it'd be quite possible for the developers to, say, make the drop chances dependent on previous runs in such a way as to guarantee a Prinz drop within 100 runs... or conversely, make the probability of one within the first 10-20 runs much lower than the aggregate probability would suggest.

All we're aware of is the aggregate probability, which we know actually -underestimates- the probability of a drop because of runs to M node by people who already have Prinz and are looking for Roma or some other drop.