Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-26095489-20151203094930/@comment-26486243-20151203131015

No, Prinz almost overlaps with Akizuki. That initial blue line is for Arashi.

Also, personal experiences are irrelevant to determining an overall drop rate. In order for anyone's experience to approximate the drop rate, the number of attempts needs to be roughly equal to the number needed for 10,000%.

Ergo, if  the drop rate is 2%, you need approximately 5,000 tries to approach a statistical number.

If the drop rate is 0.5%, you need approximately 20,000 tries.

This is just an imprecise rule of thumb since it's actually an exponential thing, but it functions relatively well in the usual probabilities we care about - that is, between 0.1% and 10%. Difficulty decisions and such should be made with the statistical data in mind, not personal experiences, because personal experiences have too small a sample size.

To expect your experiences to conform to the statistical norm is as wrong as expecting the statistical norm to conform to your experiences.