Board Thread:Wikia Discussion/@comment-25283969-20150511171714/@comment-25779449-20150515024316

Ninthsense wrote: Every single expedition ive ever sent with 6 sparkled ships has been GS. I run 36,37 every night and in past I have ran expedition 5 and 6 daily with full sparkled ships for LSC or stockpiling. I would be really concerned about observation bias 19% isnt very different than 16% and a bit of misreporting and randomness will make it difficult to discern any small difference. That is one of the reasons I don't test anything other than 100%. I would really recommend trying to have some automated logging process to validate the authenticity of the data. Otherwise it will be nearly impossible to figure out actual rates with any certainty. Kind of like the construction log reports in past I guess.

In past I remember I got 100% success rate with 3 sparkled ships running daily expedition 21 but that has greatly changed and now I require 4 sparkled ships. So I think that the drum expeditions have changed. Possibly drums affecting rate as well. Thanks for the concerns. According to my past experiences on testing & data collection, here are my answers:


 * Confirmation bias >>  Could be resolved by collecting sufficient amount of data thru experiments


 * Randomness >>>  Could be largely (if not w/ 100% certainty) controlled by increasing sample size. I guess you've read the blog post from Winzongod already.

> Autehnticity >>>>  This is the most difficult thing to manage. If there's a convenient (& safe) way to do the auto-recording thing (If you have one pls enlighten us). I think most testers will surely use that. Currently, most player reports are simply spreadsheets / graphs uploaded. The others are posts on Shitaraba BBS w/ a few words of description. Most of the Kancolle knowledge on this wiki, however, are using them as basis for conclusion.


 * "Impossible to figure out actual rates with any certainty" >>>>> Right and wrong. It is extremely hard to find the actual rates, but we are able to put a good estimate (or range) for that value. On the otherhand, if you choose not to believe most of those player reports due to authenticity issue... I'll suggest do your own tests and maybe convince others to believe in it someday.

Regarding the drum loading expedition, we've seen an earlier chart stating "3 drum give 50% GS rate". As you may have noticed, recent tests (Kitaraha, zel & me) revealed that the GS rate for #21 w/ min drum is pretty far from 50%. Assuming the old test wasn't falsified, the drum expd should've been changed.