User:DynamitMC

NOTE: These studies may have errors that I couldn't have detected. Please inform me if you happen to find one.

Study 1 : Subs That cannot be 1-Hit-KO'ed against heavy ASW enemies

 * Maruyu (6 HP)
 * Maruyu Kai (7 HP)
 * Imuya (10 HP)
 * Imuya Kai (15 HP)
 * Hachi (15 HP)
 * (Also any other ship which has exactly 15 HP, against any kind of attack)

This is not 100% possible against enemies with moderate ASW damage. And against heavy ASW enemies, their formation may change these results. I'll come back here once I finish my main study #4.

And against the enemies with low ASW, you won't have any problems.

The reasoning behind this will be explained in my main study.

Study 2 : Carrier Performances
Shelling depends on the carrier's stats.'''
 * '''Opening air strike depends on the planes and slots.

A list of carrier basic attack power with no equipments (highest remodel):

Hiryuu already has more shelling power than the day battle power cap. Unless you get head-on engagement, her shelling damage won't have any significant increase when you equip bomber planes on her. I suggest using only 1 bomber and 3 radars(or something that boosts accuracy) on her in support expeditions.

Study 3 : Enemy Basic Attack Powers
This part probably doesn't require you to look at it. You can just skip this. These will be useful on my main study #4.

Study 4 : How to use "Player Ship Protection Mechanic" in our advantage.
This will be a long run. This part will study the probabilities of surviving some certain enemy attacks with some certain ships.

First, I'd like to catch your interest (since this will be long >.<). According to these studies, against an attack of Ta-Class Flagship which is in line ahead, Hatsushimo has higher chance to survive than Musashi if Ta-flag manages to land a hit.(When you consider the extra evasion of DDs, Hatsushimo has even higher chance to survive.) I'm sure some of you are thinking now, like "how can a DD survive that kind of an attack better than a BB?". If so, good. At least I got you a little bit interested in.

What is this and how does it work?
I'll talk about the health states of our beloved ships. Here, I'll use Houshou Kai's stats to make some numbers look simpler.



This image represents the health state of a ship. What we don't want is our kanmusume going red. [Note for colorblinds : red color means that our ship has only 25% or less of her hp left.] What I am trying to calculate is anything but taiha(heavy damage).

Green Area : Healthy state. Your kanmusume has more than 75% of her HP left. 100%>= x >75%

Yellow Area : Shouha(minor damage). 75%>= x >50%

Orange Area : Chuuha(moderate damage). 50%>= x >25%

Red Area : Taiha. 25%>= x >1 HP

Imagine Houshou Kai now. She has 40 HP. If she receives 10 damage, she will be shouha. If she receives 20 damage, she will be chuuha and won't be able to launch planes. If she takes 30 damage, she will be taiha and you will have to retreat unless you are in a boss node. If she receives 40 dmg or more, than you will be at RNG's mercy. However, this is not a very bad thing. In this situation, she will lose 50%-79% of her max HP. Which means 1/6 chance of taiha and 5/6 chance of chuuha.(around 83% chance of survival) Whichever happens, you can say goodbye to her shelling, however you DO have a chance to survive a dangerous hit, thanks to what I call "Player Ship Protection Mechanic".

Okay, but how can we make use of this? Let's take a look at this image now:



Notice that this image has the opposite values.

This image represents the damage that Houshou kai will receive.

According to the damage formula in the combat page:

If received damage is less than 1, it will be considered scratch damage, meaning houshou kai will take 2-5 damage.

If received damage is 1-9, she will still be healthy. If it is 10, she will be shouha. If it is 20, she will be chuuha.

Here is the problem: If the damage that she receives is 30-39, this means a direct taiha which means an absolute retreat. However, if she receives 40 dmg or more, you have around 83.33% chance to survive with moderate damage.

So I thought : "What if I could remove the red area?","Can I remove it?". Then I tried a test, and saw that I could use that grey area to increase my chance to survive.

But the damage depends on many factors. According to the formula, those are: Enemy firepower, formation, engagement, power cap, artillery spotting, critical hits, contact, your ship's hp and armor. It would be devastatingly overwhelming to work on all those factors and calculating their possibility. However, we can easily eliminate most of them.

Let's select a map. I choose 4-3 A node. That Ta flag is in line ahead. They have no air power. Which means that we have eliminated enemy firepower, formation, artillery spotting and contact unknowns from the formula. Now we know them. (Note: to prevent enemies from triggering contact on you, gain air supremacy). What is left is engagement, critical hits and our ship.

Since we chose houshou, we have in total 8 possibilities to consider about enemy's attack. green T with critical hit, green T with no crit, and the same for parallel, head-on and red T engagements. We will use saiun to prevent red T to make things even more easier. (Both in formula and in the battle. Because houshou has more risk to get taiha'd in red-T in these conditions. You will see after a while)

Our formula is [(Basic attack power * Pre-cap modifiers) * post-cap modifiers - armor * RNG ]* remaining ammo

opening it a little bit : {[(FP+5)*Formation*Engagement*Health]*Artillery spotting*contact*critical - armor * RNG} * ammo

Houshou has 40 hp and 49 armor. Ta-flag has 125 Firepower.

Deleting the ones that have no effect : (130*1*Engagement)*critical - 49 * RNG

See it looks less scary now. Also note that (130*1*Engagement) will be modified if it exceeds the day power cap.

I'll calculate and type all the results in these 6 possibilities.

(reminder : houshou has 40 HP)

As you see here, all the possibilities except a normal hit on head-on formation will force the game to roll between 50%-79%. Even in head-on normal damage, the armor roll's risk is very unlikely. Because if she takes any damage except 38 and 39, it will give you 5/6 chance (around 83%) to survive the attack.

Let's say that you are paranoid. You don't even want that 38 or 39 dmg. In that case you can use Ryuuhou (not kai version). She has 39 HP and 38 armor. Even less than houshou, which means that she will always force the game to roll between 50%-79%. And thus you actually decreased the risk of retreat. (No need to post damages, since all of them are bigger than her HP)

I'd like to now give another example. Ryuujou Kai Ni (50HP 62armor) As you can see, most of them will force RNG roll again(dmgs are greater than 50). Except parallel normal which will hit 47 and its a direct taiha, however, the chance is very slim again(only 47,48 and 49 will send you back home). But in head-on normal, she will receive 21-62 dmg which is risky. She does have a chance to survive with little damage, however the risk of her getting taiha is big.

So if you compare, Ryuuhou has more chance to survive the attack of a line-ahead flagship Ta-class in 4-3 A node than Ryuujou Kai Ni.


 * If your enemy has high firepower, using a weak ship may force RNG roll instead of receiving a direct taiha. Against the same Ta again, Nagato has a little bit more chance than Musashi even though she has higher survivability(!). Having more survivability is usually good, however against tougher enemies, you might be reducing your chance by turning a "RNG roll" into a "direct taiha".

If it is still unclear, I'll try to make it as clear as possible this time : If you increase your armor, you decrease the enemy's damage. But sometimes you may want to increase the enemy's damage to force that RNG roll which will grant you 83% chance of survival instead of 0%. (Look at the image, and try to imagine making a hit land on the grey area instead of red)

Why I said that sentence at the beginning was because of this. (remember it? hatsushimo and musashi example). hatsuhimo will always turn Ta's attacks into RNG rolls due to her low hp and armor. Shimakaze has a little bit higher risk to get taiha. Sendai has even higher risk to get taiha. And myoukou has even more... (According to my calculations, in this situation only, Hatsushimo has 16.66% risk to get taiha. And myoukou has around 40%. big difference isn't it? However, as you go heavier than that, this value decreases because of the survivability of battleships. They have around 30% risk to cause a retreat -in this situation only-. And also don't forget that evasive ships will make this risk even smaller since they will make the enemy miss more often)

I usually prefer light ships instead of heavy ones. The most important reason behind that is that they are inexpensive. They are also more evasive (and cuter .d). And this mechanic somewhat favors them. And you won't believe this next one:

Remember that CV Hime in the last spring event's final map's preboss node? I've had my musashi getting rekt there many times. I have just calculated the chances and found out that she had around 50% chance to taiha musashi. fifty percent...oh my.... while sendai and weaker ships had 83% chance to survive. It looks like that CV Hime had around 30% chance to 1 hit ko other BBs.

I'll work on this for some more time to show you more of this. (Still need to test a few things) And think twice before using heavy battleships against CV Hime >.< [Don't forget that this may change depending on the circumstances.]

Okay now, let's be honest. There is no way to calculate all the ship's damage possibilities against all the situations. We have like 150 ships, about 100 enemies, 4 engagements, 4 formations, critical hits, contact blah blaah. However, I made some tests for you and prepared a little report which gives general ideas about our some certain ships' chances to survive against some certain enemy ships. Let's look at it together:

The Report of General Situations ( Very General )

 * Now I'll create 3 classes for us and 4 classes for the enemy. DD,CA,BB for us, and DD,CA,BB,and a boss for the enemy. I'll write each of them and compare them in different situations. While doing this, I'll give average numbers from our kanmusus' hp and armor, and enemies' firepower. Please note that if you use powerful or weak ships of one of the types, the results MAY change or rather, will most likely change (such as sortieing with Prinz Eugen who has higher defense than other heavy cruisers). [Red-T is not taken into consideration here]. So;

Our Destroyers : Are in good terms against enemy DDs. Only late models will cause direct taiha possibilities. However, they are very weak against enemy CAs. They have the possibility to wreck our ships almost anytime. Against enemy BBs, surprisingly, they are safer than many of us have thought. Only a non-crit hit in head-on has possibility to cause a direct taiha. Against bosses such as BB Hime, they will always force a RNG roll. CL Oni is something between CAs and BBs.

Our Heavy Cruisers : They have almost no risk of getting direct taiha by enemy DDs.maybe if you use a very weak CA and get a crit in green T or maybe when your CA is already chuuha. Against enemy CAs, it is kind of risky. Expect danger especially on a critical hit. And their weakest point is that, they are very vulnurable against enemy BBs. They have direct taiha risk in almost any situation! I'd rather not use many CAs against many BBs. Against the bosses, they will force RNG roll against the ones like BB Hime.

Our Battleships : Totally safe against enemy DDs. They are also safe against CAs most of the time. Beware against tougher CAs such as Ne-class and Black Ri Shooter. Fusou and Ise class have higher risk then others in this case. And against enemy BBs, -as you expected- it is quite dangerous. But it depends on what class you use and which enemy you face. Against a Ta, BBVs are the weakest, then FBBs, then slow BBs, and then heavy BBs which have the lowest risk against that kind of an enemy. However against Ru Kai, Yamato class has higher risk to get direct taiha more than any other ship in the game. Using Yamato class against very very powerful enemies (such as bosses, Wo-kai, Ru-kai) may sound like a good idea, however in fact, it may not be so. Because of their high survivability, they will receive a direct taiha while other ships will depend on the RNG roll.

This brings us the next question : " Should we deliberately try to keep enemies' damage high? "

To bring Saiun, or not to bring Saiun ?
As you know, saiun eliminates the possibility of red T, which helps us kill the enemies faster. Putting "wouldn't it be better to use high power to kill the enemies before they attack us" logic aside, (since this is not the discussion of this topic. We are just discussing about the chance to survive in case that the enemy happened to stay alive and attacked us) do you remember the question that just came up? "Should we deliberately try to keep enemies' damage high?" I've heard some things like not bringing saiun in maps which have dangerous enemies. Well, depending on those enemies, you may be actually reducing their damage from RNG roll to direct taiha.

For instance, Kongou K2, against a line ahead BB Hime's critical hit in head-on will force a RNG roll, since it is too much for kongou. However, the same attack will have a good chance to cause a direct taiha in red T (even a non-crit has that possibility). Destroyers are somewhat safe against enemy BBs because they will force their high attacks to turn into RNG rolls. However, if you cause a red T by not bringing any saiun, you may create a chance for that enemy BB to cause a direct taiha on you. This logic is valid in most of the situations that favor weak ships against very powerful ones.

I actually believe that (since I can't prove it yet. As i've said, there are quite many possibilities) not bringing saiun is not a good idea, unless you are challenging weak or mid-power enemies. It also gives you extra firepower to finish off your enemies quicker. And especially in harder maps, having no saiun in bosses may result in unpleasant outcomes.

How to do these tests by yourselves
---I've arranged the excel file to become very simple and easy to use. Here is the link
 * http://1drv.ms/1CCLjJx

All you need to do is to enter your kanmusu's name (name is important - as you might forget who you looked up to. it has no function in the excel file though), HP and armor. Then find your enemy's shelling firepower which I've listed in my main study #3 (do not use the values in their own pages. Those numbers don't include bonuses from their equipments). And finally enter the enemy formation. You will be able to see the damage that your kanmusu will receive in each engagement with critical hit values as well. [And as I've mostly seen that red-T causes many problems, I thought that having a saiun might actually be better against tough enemies. Further tests may change this opinion.]

Go ahead, try your favourite kanmusu and see how she will do against an enemy.

Since we are not mahou shoujos, we cannot predict the future. We won't know if we will get parallel engagement or if enemy Ru will crit, and even sometimes enemies' formation may change too. So what we can do after getting the results is, looking at them and selecting the most propriate one (most probably the one with the least direct taiha risk).

If you happen to find some interesting results while doing these tests, please share them. I still need more results, and I'm checking whether they are correct or not. [ For instance, I've thought that enemies may be using a different damage formula than us, but for now, it looks like they are using ours. If you happen to get a result which is out of the values that the excel file gives, please contact me immediately. ]

Possible faults in the system
I have tried to work as correct as possible. Even so, there might be some things that I've overlooked or mistaken. However, I believe that this test is mostly correct. The only problem (if there is any) can be caused by :

1)Differences between our damage formula and the enemies' damage formula. For instance, they might have different soft caps. - So far, none of the results that I've got proves this.

2)Any kind of logical problem in the theory. - I don't think this could be a problem either.

3)These tests are calculated by using FULL HP ships. In battles, you may get damaged (especially stratch damage) and thus some results may change depending on that. As I've said, we are not mahou shoujos so there is not much we can do about this.

4)Any kind of an update which changes the values used in this page will inevitably change the results of this test. However, I'll keep the page and the excel file updated, and mention about those changes when they happen.

5)If enemies get chuuha or taiha, their damages will be reduced, so it may trigger something unpleasant on weaker ships. This is also something unpredictable beforehand.

6)My opinion about saiun is subject to change as I find different results in my tests. ( I still don't have enough results yet T_T )

7)Anything else that I cannot think about. ( I require your help in this case )

A trick for submarines or some unremodeled destroyers
---still in development. will continue soon