Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-26898458-20151203031127

Tip for all the salt miners:

If Prinz Eugen drops at 1%, the probability of her NOT dropping is 99%. The probability of 99% happening CONTINUOUSLY gets lower as S-ranks increase. The probability is 0.99 ^ num_of_s_ranks. The number of runs you'd need to get a certain percentage would look like this: (1 - desired_percent) = 0.99 ^ num_of_s_ranks, or num_of_s_ranks = log (1 -  desired_percent ) / log ( 0.99 ). So in this case, a 50% of getting Prinz would be ~69 runs. For 80% it'd be ~160. Of course, this is all S-ranks, doesn't count if turned back or non-S rank.

Replace Prinz percentage with anything else you're farming. What I do to save sanity.

Also mainly posting because a comment some time ago asked about using Matlab for this and I thought it was excessive.