Talk:Winter 2019 Event/@comment-26823646-20190106190020/@comment-30609878-20190106192250

Unfortunatly random has no memory. So you can just calculate the average number of turns, people will have to go to get a certain ship. The number however is in no way valid for yourself. You could have gotten her at the very first try or never (in case time and/or ressources are used up before you got lucky).

It is always the same around 4% chance. I'd wish for a maximum of tries and her dropping 100% sure when reaching this maximum - but it is not implemented that way.