User blog:Homuhomu123/Preliminary Study on the Factors Affecting Double Attack Chance

Information about the Exp't
- Objective: to test the effects of fatigue, health & flagship status, on the double attack [DA] rate.

- Map: 3-2-A,

- Fundamental Assumptions : Based on the formulae  here.

- Terminology: "#ATK" = Total number of attacks


 * "#DA" = Number of double attacks. A double attack is only counted once


 * "#DA_HIT" = Number of DA that either strike inflcted a non-scratch damage (>10% of the target's current HP)

- Test ships & equipment:



-  Levels are subject to change.

- Differences in seaplane could be ignored (~1% diff.)

- Assue differences in artillery doesn't affect DA chances - Chikuma has the poorest radar, on both LoS & Accuracy.

- DATA SHALL BE RECORDED ONLY IF TEST SHIPS ARE IN SEVERE FATIGUE (RED FACES).

[ Exp't A ]
Completed in 2 Days (Total of 4h)


 * 1) BATTLES:118

Formation: LINE AHEAD

FlLEET Total LOS =          336 (+2% DA chance) with Chitose,


 * then replaced Chitose with Taihou, LoS = 373 (+6% DA chance)


 * The bonus is (+4% DA chance) on average.


 * ** This is a bad practice. Such things shall be prevented in future tests.

NON-S RESULTS:                20

BUCKETS USED:                18 (6 by the wildcard)

Companion CV(L):        Chitose ~ lv 86, Taihou ~ lv 78, Junyou ~ lv 60

Wildcard:    Akashi / Uzuki / Amatsukaze. (Very similar LoS thus negligible effects)

>> ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS, ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS.

== [ Exp't B ]==

Completed in 2 Days (Total of 4h)

TOTAL BATTLES / # Sorties / # Air Strikes:                128

Formation: LINE AHEAD

FLEET Total LoS = 373 (+6% DA chance)

NON-S RESULTS:                29

BUCKETS USED:                11 (3) .. the wildcard Uzuki never used any bucket

Companion CV(L):        Taihou, Junyou

Wildcard:     Uzuki / Amatsukaze


 * Prinz Eugen was in a moderately damaged status during 20th -> 34th & 48th -> 128th sortie, which consists 73.4% of the total.

>> ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS (EXCEPT PRINZ EUGEN), ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS.

Notice:

- When comparing Exp't A & B, DA chance from B should be 2% less due to higher LoS.

- Exp't A has lower credibility since a smaller samples were collected, except the one from Fuso.

Observation:
- Fuso's DA chance decreased by 16.2% when it's not the flagship.

- Eguen's DA chance decreased by 5%, when it was moderately damaged in 3/4 of the sorties.

- Chikuma's DA chance stayed the same when it becomes the flagship. (Need further testing, Chikuma has the smallest sample in Exp't A).

- From the more credible data sources (when #ATK > 160), we could see that the actual DA chances are about 12% lower than the Estimates.

- All ships have higer DA accuracy when leveled up (esp. Chikuma), except that Fuso has her DA accuracy decreased.

- Fuso & Eugen are about the same level, but Fuso constantly has a higher accuracy on DA, although her accuracy bonus from equipments is lower than Eugen's.

- Flagships seem to have higher DA accuracy, especially when BBV Fuso is the flagship.

Hypothesis:
- Flagship status will give a DA chance bonus, around +15%.

- Being moderately damaged will not affect its DA chance by more than 5%.

- Fatigue have a significant negative effect on the DA chance, around -12%.

- An appropriate caliber gun set-up might give an accuracy bonus to a BBV, more than 5%, less "Accuracy Illusion".

- "Accuracy Illusion":     The flagship & Fuso, which are the first ones to shell, sometimes will attack the weaker DDs and leaving


 * stronger enemy (the golden CL) for her fellows. As a result, it seems that the flagship (esp. Fuso) has an


 * "accuracy bonus" on double attacks.

Hypothesis are Based on the Following Assumptions:
- A level difference of 10 will not affect DA chance significantly.

- BBV Fuso & CA Prinz Eugen, with the same equipment & level, will have the same DA accuracy.

- Data from Chikuma (Exp't A) are inaccurate, due to lower sample cases, thus very much ignored.

- Difference in artillery doesn't affect DA chance, at least not in a large scale.

- Both large surface radars, FuMO & #32, give the same DA chance bonus of +13%.

Uncertainty:
- A very large level difference will influence DA rate significantly.

- Any CL, CA(V), BB(V) will have the same DA rate, if the same level & equipment.

- The fatigue effects on DA rate, however, is actually caused by the difference in levels (All the test ships used to collect the reference data are above lv 90). Insert non-formatted text here

Plans for the Next Step
- Objective: Evaluate the effects of formation (Double Line vs Line Ahead) on the trigger rate of DA.


 * Keep on evaluating the effects of HP, cumulative with the possible effects from formation.

- Map: 3-2-A

- Fatigue: Always red faces

- HP: always above moderate damage, except Fuso

- Set Chikuma as the flagship

- Prinz Eugen uses a cut-in setup

- Fuso stays in a moderately damaged status

- Formation: LINE AHEAD