User blog:Homuhomu123/Estimation of Radar Modifiers on Artillery Spotting Chance

- Recent Update:

 * Dec 10, 2014 (by homuhomu123)
 * Plotting added to sub-section Detailed Explanation
 * Format editing for section Typical Set Ups for Artillery Spotting.
 * Dec 10, 2014 (by homuhomu123)
 * 2 tables, regarding modifiers for different radars & seaplanes, were added to the sub-section Detailed Explanation.
 * Base DA/CI rates for CA(V) were adjusted from 45 -> 50, which seems to be more consistent with findings from Exp'D.
 * Base DA/CI rates for CA(V) were adjusted from 45 -> 50, which seems to be more consistent with findings from Exp'D.

Introduction:
This page studies the trigger rates & effectiveness of Artillery Spotting, based on credible in-game testing. An optimal use of Artillery Spotting could considerably improve your fleet's combat performances.

In brief, Artillery Spotting consists of two types of attack: Cut-In [CI] & Double Attack [DA]. When activated, the attacking ship receives a damage output (post-cap) & accuracy bonus. More detailed explanations could be found on the page Game Mechanics -> Artillery Spotting.

** SORRY FOR THE FREQUENT CHANGES ON THIS PAGE, SINCE VARIOUS HYPOTHESIS WERE MADE BASED ON DIFFERENT FINDINGS. AS A RESULT, THE FORMULA WRITTEN BELOW ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, WHICH MAY GIVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ESTIMATES. ALL THESE ENDEAVORS WERE DONE TO MAKE SURE THE TEXT BELOW ARE AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.

Double Attack

 * 2 x Main + 1 Seaplane........................................(basic setup)
 * 2 x Main + 1 Seaplane + 1 Seaplane
 * 2 x Main + 1 Seaplane + 1 Radar........................(highest DA chance)

''>> DA Damage: 120% x 2. More powerful for ships with high shelling accuracy.''

Cut-In
''>> CI Damage: 110% / 120% / 130%. Works well for ships with high firepower. Giving accuracy boost ??''
 * 1 x Main + 1 x Sec + 1 Seaplane...................................(basic setup)
 * 1 x Main + 1 x Sec + 1 Seaplane + Radar......................(highest CI chance)
 * 1 x Main + 1 x Sec + 1 Seaplane + AP Shell

Hybrid (DA+CI)
>> CI Damage: 130% / 150%.
 * 2 x Main + 1 x Sec + 1 Seaplane
 * 2 x Main + AP Shell + 1 Seaplane...................................(Both will give you the highest chance for Artillery Spotting)

''For the ways to maximize your damage output by using Artillery Spotting, you may consult this.page. ''

The Trigger Chance of Artillery Spotting:
Possible factors are listed below, followed by their estimated effects.

The first 5 factors are derived from 艦これ-チラ裏検証-. These will be used as fundamental assumptions for further study: The following factors have negligible effects on the trigger rates:
 * 1)  Being the flagship / 旗艦  (+15% for both rates)
 * 2)  Radar & type / 電探  (+30% CI chance, +13% DA chance, maximum)
 * 3)  Air Supremacy or Superiority / 制空権の状態  (-12% for both if only Air Superiority is achieved)
 * 4)  Fleet total LoS / 艦隊合計索敵値/  (+8% DA rate, +12% CI rate, per 100 additional LoS)
 * 5) LoS Values on Seaplane /  水上機の索敵補正値  (Depending on their LoS stat ?? minimal effects)
 * Ship class or type / 艦種

The following factors might have an effect on the trigger rates:
 * Individual LoS value / 個々の索敵値の差
 * 1) Fatigue / 疲労度  ( Red face penalty: -12% DA chance, based on test results here)
 * 2) Health state / HP ( Moderate damage penalty: -5% DA chance, based on test results here)
 * 3) Level / レベル (Negligible effects: based on test results here)
 * 4) Formation / 陣形 ( -5% DA chance for using Diamond formation ??)

Detailed Explanation:
1. Before we start, let's assume a standard situation, in which the fleet total LoS = 300, test ships are beyond minor damage(小破) and always have morale = 49. The test map is 3-2-A, and Air Supremacy is achieved for every battle. Based on test results from the reference page, we may come up with following hypothesis.

- BB(V) equipped with 2 x Main & 1 seaplane has DA rate ~ 50%.

- CA(V) / CL equipped with 2 x Main & 1 seaplane has DA rate ~50% ??

- BB(V) equipped with 1 x Main + 1 x Secondary & 1 seaplane has CI rate ~ 50%

- CA(V) / CL equipped with 1 x Main + 1 x Secondary & 1 seaplane has CI rate ~50% ??

2. As total fleet LoS incremented from 300 -> 400, the trigger rates increase slightly:

- DA rate + 8%, per 100 additional LoS.

- CI rate + 12%, per 100 additional LoS

- The relation is supposed to be linear ??

3. If an additional seaplane scout is added onto the 4th slot:

- DA rate +5% ??

- CI rate +0% ??

4. If we replace the extra seaplane with a radar, and compare the results to those from the standard situation:

- DA rate rises by 4 % ~ 13 % depending on the accuracy stat of the radar.

- CI rate rises by 30% (surface radar) or 24% (AA radar). ??

- List of radars with their Estimated DA/CI rate modifier (Requires further verification)
5. Different seaplane scouts vary slightly (up to ~3%) in the DA trigger rate bonus.

- Type 0 Observation Plane & Prototype Seiran (+ 6 LoS) give the highest bonus. (+1%).

- Night Scout (+ 3 LoS) gives less bonus on DA chance (-2%).

- DA chance bonus depends on their LoS stat only ??

- Different seaplanes have no effect on CI chance ??

- List of seaplanes with their Estimated DA rate modifier (Requires further verification)
6. For standard BB(V)s, aka non-Yamato class BBs, radars could be replaced by AP Shells for a cut-in setup (Main / Secondary / AP / seaplane), which gives a 20% trigger chance bonus on CI. However, you could also use AP shells (or Secondary) for a hybrid set up  (2 Main / AP (or Secondary) / seaplane). In the standard situation, the combined Artillery Spotting chance is about 70%.

- AP shell hybrid setup (with 41cm x 2): CI = 38% & DA = 32%.

- AP shell hybrid setup (with 46cm x 2): CI = 43% & DA = 27%.

- Secondary gun hybrid setup:              CI = 50% & DA = 20%.

- For hybrid setup, every 100 additional LoS will only increase CI chances by 5%.

- Replacing Type 0 Recon by  Type 0 Observation Seaplane  will increase DA rate by 3%.

- Yet there's no test results from Yamato Class.

- Conclusion: Equip huge caliber guns and/or secondary gun on standard BB(V) would trade some DA for more CI chances.

7. If Air Superiority [AS] rather than Air Supremacy [AS+], then both rates fall significantly:

- Both CI & DA chance falls by at least 12%

- In the case of a hybrid setup, CI chance falls by 11% while DA rate -7%.

- If you're using the hybrid setup, it's more recommended to achieve Air Supremacy (AS+) for your fleet.

8. The flagship has a significantly higher chance (+15%) of triggering Artillery Spotting

- In the case of a hybrid setup, CI chance +7.5% while DA rate +7.5%.



Source: 艦これ-チラ裏検証- .

Image Explanation: Blue = DA, Yellow = CI, Brown = Single attacks.
 * 1) TOP LEFT: Trigger rates for flagship (outer) & companion ship (inner) with hybrid setup
 * 2) TOP RIGHT: The plotting of artillery spotting rate versus fleet total LoS
 * 3) BOTTOM LEFT: Flagship & her companion ships with DA basic setup.
 * 4) BOTTOM RIGHT: Flagship & her companion ships with CI basic setup. 

Sample Calculation for DA:
1) Fuso, AS+, having Fleet LoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, #32 radar & Type 0 Observation will have a: 2)  Prinz Eugen, AS+, Fleet LoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, FuMO32 & Ar196 will have a: 3)  Chikuma, AS+, Fleet LoS = 400, equipped with 2 main, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a: 4)  Haruna, {flagship}, AS+, Fleet LoS = 300, equipped with 2 main, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a: 5)  Mutsu, {flagship}, AS, Fleet LoS = 300, equipped with 2 main guns, #22 radar & Type 0 Recon will have a:
 * DA chance of ...
 * 50%( BB Base) + 13%[Radar Modifier] + 0%(LoS Modifier) +1% = 64%
 * DA chance of ...
 * 50%( CA Base)+ 16%[Radar Modifier]+ 0%(LoS Modifier) +0% = 66%
 * DA chance of ...
 * 50%( CA Base)+ 4%[Radar Modifier]+ 8%(LoS Modifier) + 0%= 62%
 * DA chance of ...
 * 50%( BB Base)+ 15%{Flagship Modifier} + 4%[Radar Modifier]+ 0%(LoS Modifier)= 69%
 * DA chance of ...
 * 50%( BB Base)+ 15%{Flagship Modifier} - 12%(Air Superiority) + 4%[Radar Modifier]+ 0%(LoS Modifier)= 57%

Sample Calculation for CI:
1) Fuso, AS+, Fleet LoS = 300, equipped with 1 main + 1 sec, #22 Surface radar & seaplane will have a: 2)  Atago, AS+, Fleet LoS = 300, equipped with 1 main + 1 sec, #14 AA radar & seaplane will have a: 3)  Mutsu, AS+, Fleet LoS = 400, equipped with 1 main + sec, AP shell & seaplane will have a: 4)  Kumano, AS+, Fleet LoS = 400, equipped with 1 main + 1sec, #32 Surface radar & seaplane will have a:
 * CI chance of ...
 * 50%( BB Base)+ 30%[Radar Modifier]+ 0%(LoS Modifier) = 80%
 * CI chance of ...
 * 50%( CA Base)+ 24%[Radar Modifier]+ 0%(LoS Modifier) = 74%
 * CI chance of ...
 * 50%( BB Base)+ 20%[AP Shell Modifier]+ 12%(LoS Modifier) = 82%
 * CI chance of ...
 * 50%( CA Base)+ 30%[Radar Modifier]+ 12%(LoS Modifier)= 92%

Sample Calculation for Hybrid Setup:
1) Mutsu, AS+, Fleet LoS = 400, Type 0 Recon, AP shell setup with 41cm x 2:
 * Total artillery spotting rate = 70%(BASE) + 5%(LoS Modifier for CI) = 75%.

2) Kongou, AS+, Fleet LoS = 400, Type 0 Observation Seaplane, AP shell setup with 46cm x 2: NOTE: More credible tests (Sample size >= 160) are needed to come up with more reliable formula. Deviations from actual test results are supposed to be less than 5%, otherwise the formula itself should be reworked. This does not include effects from fatigue, HP status(中破), and undetermined factors like formation, level differences (>>10), maps, etc.
 * CI% = 38%(AP BASE) + 5%(LoS Modifier) = 43%
 * DA% = 32%(AP BASE) = 32%
 * Total artillery spotting rate = 70%(BASE)+ 5%(LoS Modifier for CI) + 3%(Obsv.Seaplane) = 78%
 * CI% = 43%(AP BASE, Overload) + 5%(LoS) = 48%
 * DA% = 27%(AP BASE, Overload) + 3%(Obsv.Seaplane) = 30%

Uncertainty

 * It seems that there should be a CI trigger-rate-cap above 90%. It doesn't make sense to have a CI chance more than 100%, for a set up like BB (50%) + radar [30%] + flagship{15%} + LoS modifier (10%) = 105%.
 * Test results from CA are more volatile. It seems that LoS doesn't really affect their CI/DA chances ??