Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-26898458-20151203031127/@comment-26486243-20151203083418

http://kancolle.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Hayashi_H/Fall_2015_Fleet_Setups#What_difficulty_should_I_choose.3F

I did up a chart for this some time ago for all the ships people are likely to want to hunt.

Also, while each individual probability is independent, the aggregate probability is not. The chance per attempt is always the same, but the chance overall increases as the number of attempts increases. I believe edX may have some free courses on this topic if you want to know more about this; KanColle Wikia isn't really the place to hold a math class.