Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-133.236.25.90-20151206090151/@comment-84.222.216.172-20151206163459

Chances of NOT GETTING Graf after 190 sorties is around 2,2%, which is the same chance of GETTING Graf on the first sortie.

With a fixed drop rate, you'll never achieve 100% chance of getting her after x sorties, for a finite x number. Every roll is independent with the same 2%, and can only increase your chances by rolling more time.