User blog:Shadow27X/Documentation on Accuracy and Evasion

Preface
In here, I'll document the effects of accuracy and evasion to the best of my abilities. These only are estimations and observations based on test data from various players and sources, and as such, I will abstain from drawing any conclusions.

To obtain the success rate in percentages of the following equations, multiply the result by 100.

Accuracy Term
$$\text{Accuracy Term} = 1 + \frac{\sqrt{A - 1}}{50} + \text{Adjusted Luck} + F +\sum^\text{All Slots}\frac{E_{\text{Acc}} + E_{\text{Fit}} + E_{\bigstar}}{100}$$

$$\text{Adjusted Luck} = (1.25 \sim 1.50) \times \frac{\text{L}}{1000}$$

Where:
 * $$A$$ is the ship's Level
 * $$L$$ is the ship's Luck
 * $$F$$ is the formation modifier
 * $$E_{\text{Acc}}$$ is the equipment's displayed accuracy bonus
 * $$E_{\text{Fit}}$$ is the equipment's fit bonus or overweight penalty (consider 0 if neutral)
 * $$E_{\bigstar}$$ is the equipment's improvement accuracy bonus

The value of Adjusted Luck is only an estimation. In a previous version of the Accuracy Term, the modifier on luck was simply 1, but it is now thought to be between 1.25 and 1.50.

Formation Modifier

 * Double Line, Line Abreast, and Echelon provide a ~20% (~0.20) accuracy bonus
 * The accuracy bonus of the aforementioned formations are cancelled if:
 * Double Line is cancelled by opposing fleet's Line Abreast
 * Line Abreast is cancelled by opposing fleet's Echelon
 * Echelon is cancelled by opposing fleet's Line Ahead

Fit Bonus and Overweight Penalty
[Under Construction]

Improvement Accuracy
Recent tests suggest that the impact of improvements on accuracy simply is:

$$E_{\bigstar} = \sqrt{\bigstar}$$

Evasion Term
$$\text{Evasion Term} = 0.03 + \text{Adjusted Evasion}$$

$$\text{Adjusted Evasion} = \begin{cases} \text{Evasion} \div 80, & \text{if Evasion} \le 40 \\ \text{Evasion} \div (\text{Evasion}+40), & \text{otherwise} \end{cases}$$

Other Observations

 * Current presumption is that sparkling provides a 80% increase (x1.8) to the Evasion stat (not the Evasion Term).
 * Echelon provides either a ~7% (~0.07) bonus to the Evasion Term (as described above), or a 20% increase (x1.2) to the Evasion stat before processing.

Hit Rate and Critical Hits
There exists a hard cap on effective accuracy (Hit Rate, as described below) of approximately 97%. In other words, a ship will always have a ~3% missing rate, regardless of her own accuracy or her target's evasion value.

$$\text{Hit Rate} = \min ( \text{Accuracy Term} - \text{Evasion Term}, \text{Accuracy Cap} )$$

$$\text{Accuracy Cap} \approx 0.97 $$

Critical Hits
It is currently unknown if Critical Hits override the Evasion Term, or if they are calculated after the Hit Rate roll.

$$\text{Critical Hit Rate} = 0.24 \times \frac{\text{Hit Rate}}{\text{Hit Rate Scaling}}$$

$$ \text{Hit Rate Scaling} = \begin{cases} \text{Hit Rate} + 0.75, & \text{(Hypothesis 1)} \\ \sqrt{ ( \text{Hit Rate} - 0.05) \div 50}, & \text{(Hypothesis 2)} \end{cases} $$