Talk:Fall 2015 Event/@comment-27119040-20151125161313/@comment-26486243-20151125204438

Still wrong. The probability of every single attempt is independent. There's no force that magically pushes up your drop rate after you roll the blank die. The likelihood of getting Inazumas from try 201 to 400 is identical to the likelihood of getting Inazumas from try 1 to 200. If you have already rolled Inazumas in your first 200, the overall probability of your experience will forever be lower than the overall probability of someone who has't started yet, but the probability of you rolling your target ship is still exactly the same as the probability of someone who hasn't started yet.