Talk:Fall 2019 Event/@comment-31894513-20200110022541/@comment-26809641-20200111024300

Every time one drops, you have a 2.176% chance of getting her. That means the odds of NOT getting her in one run is 97.824%. So, the odds of not getting her in either of two runs is 97.824% x 97.824%, or 95.695%. In fact, for any number N runs, your probability of not getting her is 97.824%^N. Your odds of getting her at least once would be 100% - (chance of not getting her). With set probabilities, you're never guaranteed a drop; you just try so many times that not getting a drop is incredibly unlikely.