User blog comment:OceanSushi/A Mini Research on the Optimal Maruyu Batch Size/@comment-26154973-20160224100353

The assumption about 50% success rate is wrong though? The actual rates make it so it's always 1.6 luck on average per Maruyu Kai, no matter what you do. Can be less or more, depending on RNG, or exactly 1.6 for 5-sets; e.g., for 60 Maruyu Kai the ranges are 60-120 (1-sets), 90-120 (2-sets), 80-100 (3-sets), 90-105 (4-sets) and 96 (5-sets), 2-sets look good for gambling, but due to distributions the main difference is between 1-sets and 2/3/4-sets (something like this actually, and 5-sets have a trivial one).