User blog:Homuhomu123/Preliminary Study on the Factors Affecting Double Attack Chance

- Objective: to test the effects of fatigue, health & flagship status, on the double attack [DA] rate.

- Map: 3-2-A,

- Fixed Companion Ships: CV Taihou (lv 78->90), CVL Junyou.(lv 56->80).

- Fundamental Assumptions: Based on the test results from here.

- Terminology: "#ATK" = total number of attacks, "#DA" = number of double attacks, "#DA_HIT" = number of DA that didn't inflict scratch damage.

[ Exp't A ]

Completed in 2 Days (Total of 4h)

TOTAL BATTLES / # sortie / #air strikes:                118                / LINE AHEAD / FLEET LOS = 336 (+2% DA chance)

Range    #ATK    #DA    #DA_HIT        Actual DA rate    (DA Accuracy)    DA rate Est.                                 DIFF.(Est-Act)


 * Fuso (lv63->73, Flag, fatigue, 35.6 DAZ X2, #32 radar):      --->        165      117       73                  70.9%                (62.4%)             80% = 50%+[13%]+15%+(2%)        +9.1%

Chikuma (lv50->61, fatigue, 20.3 (2)x2, #22 radar):             -->        122      72         20                  59.0%                (27.8%)             55% = 50%+[3%]+(2%)                   -4.0% `     Eugen (lv65->72, fatigue, 20.3 (2)x2, FuMO radar ):            -->        138      82         42                  59.4%                (51.2%)             65% = 50%+[13%]+(2%)                 +5.6%

NON-S RESULTS:                20

BUCKETS USED:                18 (6 by the wildcard)

CV(L):        Taihou ~ lv 78, Junyou ~ lv 60

Wildcard:    Akashi lv 1->35, then switched to Uzuki & Amatsukaze

>> ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS, ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS.

[ Exp't B ]

Completed in 2 Days (Total of 4h)

TOTAL BATTLES / # sortie / #air strikes:                128                / LINE AHEAD / FLEET LOS = 373 (+5% DA chance)

Range          #ATK     #DA    #DA_HIT     Actual DA rate   (DA Accuracy)       DA rate Est.                                DIFF.(Est.-Act.)

.........Fuso (lv73->78, fatigue, 35.6 DAZ X2, #32 radar):                          --->          164       93         55                  56.7%               (59.1%)               68% = 50%+[13%]+(5%)           +11.3%

` Eugen (lv72->77, fatigue, "moderately dmg", 20.3(2) x2, FuMO):   -->           163       92        49                   56.4%               (53.3%)               68% = 50%+[13%]+(5%)           +11.6%
 * Chikuma (lv61->70, Flag, fatigue, 20.3(2)x2, #22 radar):                -->           177      109       46                   61.6%               (42.2%)              73% = 50%+[3%]+(5%)+15%    +11.4%

NON-S RESULTS:                29

BUCKETS USED:                11 (3) .. Uzuki never used any bucket

CV(L):        Taihou lv 86, Junyou ~ lv 73

Wildcard:     Uzuki lv 5->24, Amatsukaze 11->29

The #sorties Eugen was in a moderately damaged status:    20th -> 34th & 48th -> 128th, which consists of 73.4% of the sortie.

>> ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS (EXCEPT PRINZ EUGEN), ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS.

Notice:

- When comparing Exp't A & B, DA chance from B should be 3% less due to higher LoS.

- Exp't A has lower credibility since a smaller samples were collected, except the one for Fuso.

Observation:

- Fuso's DA chance decreased by 17% when it's not the flagship.

- Eguen's DA chance decreased by 5.6% when it's moderately damaged.

- Chikuma's DA chance stayed the same when it becomes the flagship. (Need further testing, Chikuma has the smallest sample in Exp't A).

- From the more credible data sources (when #ATK > 160), we could see that the actual DA chances are about 11% lower than the Estimates.

- All ships have higer DA accuracy when leveled up (esp. Chikuma), except that Fuso has her DA accuracy decreased.

- Fuso & Eugen are about the same level, but Fuso constantly has a higher accuracy on DA, although her accuracy bonus is lower than Eugen's.

- Flagships seem to have higher DA accuracy, especially for BBV Fuso.

Hypothesis:

- Flagship status will give a DA chance bonus, around +15%.

- Being moderately damaged doesn't have significant impact on the DA chances, less than 5%.

- Fatigue may have a negative effect on the DA chance, around -10%.

- An appropriate caliber gun set-up would give an accuracy bonus to a BBV, more than 5%.

- "Accuracy Illusion":     The flagship, which is the first one to shell, always attacks the weaker DDs, leaving stronger enemy (the golden CL) for her fellows. As a result, it seems that the flagship has an "accuracy bonus".

Based on the Following Assumptions:

- A level difference of 10 will not affect DA chance significantly.

- BBV Fuso & CA Prinz Eugen, with the same equipment & level, will have the same DA accuracy.

- Samples from Chikuma are very much inaccurate, and thus very much ignored.

Uncertainty:

- A very large level difference will influence DA rate significantly.

- The fatigue effects on DA rate, however, is actually caused by the difference in levels (All the test ships used to collect the reference data are above lv 90).