Talk:General Discussion/@comment-25189003-20141009091951/@comment-25289127-20141011005208

"statistic is the only thing that gives us the result closest to what things should be"

Nope, based on what I explained already using the usual statistical calculation isn't very useful for computer calculation. The best thing to assume is that you want to have a chance of more than 50% otherwise your chance to get it will sink a lot and the closer to 100% the better. If you get above 90% you'll most likely nearly always get it. (What ever 'it' may be.)

As example if you have 35% and you can increase it up to 55 or 65% that can help a lot. If you have 15% and can only increase it to 35% then better forget about it right anyway.

Btw XVM works completely different. The problem with XVM is that it uses the general winrate of people to calculate the overall winrate of your team. XVM does not take into account what tank every player is currently driving and other information. Therefore XVM is correct very often but sometimes just horrible wrong.