Talk:Construction/@comment-123.21.158.234-20141018180126/@comment-138.229.29.71-20141018224410

^ That's because you understood it wrong. It's not how the single next try will be, more like in 20 tries, you have 30-50% chance of getting at least once, and also 50-70% chance of not getting one. It's about the whole thing, since any single event is the same, 2-4%

The bigger number of tries, the more your chance of getting one approaches 100%. Pretty much guaranteed that you get at least one after one million tries.