User blog comment:Hayashi H/Advanced Equipment Guide/@comment-114.125.12.189-20151105060725/@comment-26486243-20151105183359

It's almost difficult to know where to begin with the problems with this test source, because there are a lot of them.


 * His accuracy predictions are based on a theory of accuracy being affected purely by level in the exact same way, even though base accuracy for each ship is unknown.


 * Even should the above be accurate, his tests are not even conducted at the same ship level, so the ships' accuracy varied as the tests progressed. An earlier test would naturally have a lower accuracy than a later test within the same test bloc, as the levels went up.


 * The quoted evasion values for the targets are wrong. I-class evasion is 14, Ro, He and Ho evasion are 15. I have no idea where his numbers are from.


 * Even should the accuracy differences in changing the level be ignored, the sample sizes are very small. The 95% confidence interval estimates are given below:


 * 14cm: (48.4 +/- 6.7)%, 20.3cm: (37.6 +/- 4.6)%, 15.2cm: (45.1 +/- 7.4)%, 15.5cm: (37.9 +/- 8.0)%.


 * Or to put it another way using ranges:


 * 14cm: 41.7-55.1%, 20.3cm: 32.9-42.3%, 15.2cm: 37.6-52.6%, 15.5cm: 29.8-46%.


 * All of those ranges overlap, the data cannot exclude the possibility that all 4 gun types are exactly 42% accuracy. The 15.2cm gun known to have an accuracy bonus of 3 somehow has a lower accuracy than the 14cm. And somehow, the 15.5cm gun known to have an accuracy bonus of 1 somehow has a lower accuracy than the 20.3cm.


 * Even if we were to use the means provided by the source, the conclusion would be that one should use the 14cm gun instead of the 15.5cm, as 20.3cm still shows a reduction in accuracy relative to it.


 * According to some vets on the chat, the Twitter post that announced the firepower buff of the 15.5cm triple gun also announced it will share a fit bonus with the 14cm and 15.2 cm variants. The only gun not mentioned by the devs to have a CL accuracy bonus is Bismarck's 15cm secondary gun. I haven't seen the tweet itself personally, but should one care to dig back in the tweets, it should be verifiable whether or not this claim is true.

'''Based on all of these, I would recommend disregarding this source and sticking with the devs' line on the topic for now. If you trust the source anyway, use 14cms instead until 15.2cms are available, then use those. If you do not, use 15.5cms instead until 15.2cms are available, then use those. 20.3cms are still CA-only guns unless you absolutely need its firepower on your CL for some reason.'''