Thread:Homuhomu123/@comment-24921408-20150202200415

Hi Homuhomu!

I'm not very active on the KCwiki so it took me a while to notice, but you've done quite some research on the game mechanics and collected alot of statistics. Now, I think you (and many others) have often encountered the problem whereby, say you switch one EQ and see 50% cut-in, and then another with 52% cut-in, and wonder if it's significant. I'm not extremely good at math, but I worked out a formula that seems to make sense (and works practically). See: Calculating Confidence Intervals for Underlying Probabilities

Given a number of attempts and successes (say attempted to craft 100 times and succeeded 10 times) it calculates confidence intervals for which the actual probability lies in, rather than just saying, "oh, it's 10%, but not very confident". So, for this example, 10/100 success gives a 90% confidence interval that the actual probability lies from 6.23% to 16.22%. If it 1000 attempts with 100 successes, then the 90% interval becomes 8.56% to 11.69%, which is narrower range as you can see.

This would help all the research you've done, and allow us to draw better conclusions on what changes the chances significantly and what doesn't. Please have a look through the post that I made and let me know what you think. I have no idea how good your math is, so if you do spot any errors, please let me know. On the other hand, if you need the MatLab code to run such a script to help you calculate, also let me know, or anything else for that matter. 