Talk:Winter 2016 Event/@comment-27240709-20160223012751

Some predictive number crunching:

Prinz Eugen Farming on Easy S-node (1.238% or 0.01238 from poi.stats)

50% of admirals should have Pudding: 56 S-ranks (retreats and non-S-rank don't count)

95% of admirals should have Pudding: 241 S-ranks

Equation:

p=Probability of finding Pudding (set as 0.5 or 0.95 for above)

x=Drop % (0.01238 for Pudding)

n=# of S-ranks

p=1-(1-x)^n

n=log(1-p, 1-x) [Same as above but reordered to solve for n, can be set in excel/spreadsheet)

To go a step further, we can guess the # of runs needed to achieve above by estimating completion rates, % of all runs that end in a S-rank on Node S. Using 50% and 80% to cover the extremes. (Realistically you should be S-ranking about 60-70% of your runs)

50% will have Pudding (S-rank 80% of runs): 70 Runs

50% will have Pudding (S-rank 50% of runs): 112 Runs

95% will have Pudding (S-rank 80% of runs): 302 Runs

95% will have Pudding (S-rank 50% of runs): 482 Runs