Talk:Spring 2015 Event/@comment-26300537-20150416003153/@comment-26117481-20150417061159

I don't know where you got the info '5 sparkle for exp 5 is about 95% chance for great success', but clearly the math does not add up.

Drum expeditions give a base chance of 50% great success, while non-drum expeditions give a base chance of 0% (look up the expedition page if you don't believe me). Therefore, if we assume 6 sparkling ships would give a 100% great success rate, basic multiplication would suggest that 5 sparkling ships would have around a (100/6) * 5 = 83.33% chance. However, we know that the actual value is lower than this, as it is still possible to not get great success even with all 6 ships sparkling.

Statistically speaking, you should expect a normal success every 5 expeditions or so if you only have 5 sparkled ships. You must be very, very lucky if this hasn't happened to you before.